NFL betting: A look back at preseason win totals

Pete Truszkowski

Prior to every season, the oddsmakers release a season-long over/under for each team's win total. Heading into the season we all feel like we have a good understanding of what's going to happen. Quickly, we realize that's not the case.

The preseason win total market is one of the more popular ways to invest in the season-long futures market. Which NFL teams have already cashed their win totals in one way or another? Which teams are on the verge of deciding their total?

Four winners already

Each NFL team still has four games remaining on their schedule, but four teams have already had their season long win-total decided in one way or another.

Arizona Cardinals: Heading into the season, the Arizona Cardinals were projected to finish in last place in the NFC West. They were projected to win just 8.5 games. Sixty-one percent of bettors at BetMGM had the Cardinals going under 8.5 wins. As we know, Arizona began the season by winning their first seven games. They won their ninth game prior to Thanksgiving and bettors have been waiting to cash their winning over tickets for nearly a month already. More wins are likely to come for the Cardinals, as Arizona is a 13.5-point favorite over the Lions this week.

Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow was coming off a serious knee injury and many questioned the Bengals' decision to draft a wide receiver over an offensive lineman in the first round. The consensus was that the Bengals were at least a year way and that Baltimore and Cleveland would slug it out atop the AFC North. Cincinnati's preseason win total was 6.5 wins. Well, the Bengals have become a good team quicker than anyone expected. Despite losing their last two games, the Bengals have already clinched over 6.5 wins as a winning ticket for their backers. Eighty-one percent of preseason bettors had the Bengals going under 6.5 wins.

CINCINNATI, OH - DECEMBER 12: Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) reacts during the game against the San Francisco 49ers and the Cincinnati Bengals on December 12, 2021, at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Ja'Marr Chase has had an immediate impact in his rookie season for the Bengals. (Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) (Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Seattle Seahawks: Entering the season, the Seattle Seahawks had won at least 10 games in eight of the nine seasons with Russell Wilson under center. Unfortunately for their backers, they will not be continuing that streak this year. Wilson's injury certainly didn't help but even when Wilson has been healthy, the Seahawks have vastly underachieved this season. Oddsmakers lined the Seahawks with an over/under of 10 wins. Seattle has eight losses already, meaning the under will be the winning side here.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Coming off a one-win season, the Jaguars drafted the best quarterback prospect in nearly a decade. They also hired one of the most storied football coaches in the world in Urban Meyer. Oddsmakers had optimism for Jacksonville, setting their preseason over/under at 6.5 wins. With a 2-11 record, the Jaguars have already clinched the under as the winning side here. Maybe over bettors would have had a chance if Urban Meyer was fired a few weeks ago. In their first game without Meyer, the Jaguars are actually a 4-point favorite over the Texans.

One game away

With four games remaining, 13 teams just need one result to clinch their preseason win totals.

  • Buffalo had a preseason win total of 11 wins. Currently, the best Buffalo can do is push for their over backers. One more loss by the Bills will clinch the under as the winning side.

  • The Chicago Bears had a preseason win total of 7.5 wins. One more loss by the Bears will clinch the under as the winning side here. Chicago is a 4.5-point underdog on Monday night against the Vikings.

  • The Cleveland Browns were a popular preseason Super Bowl pick and they had a preseason win total of 10.5 wins. One more loss by the Browns will clinch the under as the winning side. It might happen this week, as the COVID-ravaged Browns are 1-point home underdogs against the Raiders on Saturday.

  • The Dallas Cowboys need just one more win to go over their preseason over/under of 9.5 wins. The Cowboys are 10.5-point favorites this week in New York against the Giants.

  • If the Detroit Lions lose this week as 13.5-point underdogs against the Cardinals, they will clinch under 5 wins as the winning side.

  • The Green Bay Packers need just one more win this season to go over 10.5 wins. The Packers are a 5.5-point favorite over the Ravens this weekend.

  • The Kansas City Chiefs need to win out if they want to go over 12.5 wins. One more loss will clinch the under as the winning side.

  • The Las Vegas Raiders' preseason win total was set at 7 wins. Currently sitting at 6 wins, the Raiders need one win for a push and two wins for their over backers.

  • Despite beginning the season with a 1-7 record, the Miami Dolphins are still alive to go over 9.5 wins. One more loss for the Dolphins will clinch the under as the winning side. Under bettors have been waiting a while for that loss.

  • New England needs just one more win to go over 9.5 wins.

  • The Philadelphia Eagles also need just one more win. If the Eagles beat the Football Team as a 9.5-point favorite this weekend, they will clinch over 6.5 wins as the winning side.

  • The San Francisco 49ers will need to win out if they want to go over 10.5 wins. One more loss will make the under a winning bet.

  • The Titans need to win one of their final four games in order to clinch over 9 wins as a winning bet. The Titans are a 1-point favorite over the Steelers this weekend.

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