I have one more big card to play in politics, says Nigel Farage
“I’ve got one more big card to play in politics in my life. It’s not now,” Nigel Farage said on Thursday, as he effectively announced his candidacy for the 2029 general election five years early.
He would not, he said, be standing for Parliament on July 4, telling his supporters that a six-week campaign was not long enough for him to ensure victory.
Mr Farage had been set to announce his candidacy next week for an expected autumn election and had got as far as making arrangements for a launch event.
He had not made a final decision, but Rishi Sunak effectively made the decision for him by calling a surprise summer poll.
Having decided to sit this one out, Mr Farage was at pains to tell the public - and his opponents - that “I haven’t gone away at all” and even promised that “at some point I will be back as a candidate”.
So there can be little doubt that Mr Farage intends to make an eighth and final attempt to be elected to Parliament at the next election but one.
What is certain is that he will spend the next six weeks making life as uncomfortable as possible for Mr Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer.
By not standing for election (which would have tied him down to fighting a local campaign), he will be free to cause chaos for the mainstream parties by turning up everywhere they don’t want him.
As Mr Farage said in a social media post on Thursday afternoon: “The bad news, Mr Sunak, is that I will be out around the country, fighting, campaigning, appearing on media, supporting [Reform UK leader] Richard Tice in every single way.”
Some Tory MPs had suggested that Mr Farage returning as Reform UK leader would be an “extinction-level event” for their party.
There was even talk of the Conservatives being wiped out in the same way as Canada’s ruling Progressive Conservative Party, which was left with just two seats after a calamitous general election in 1993.
Mr Tice, Reform UK’s leader, announced on Thursday that unlike in 2019, his party would not cut any deals to stand aside in Tory seats, but would contest every constituency in England, Scotland and Wales.
To applause from party activists, Mr Tice said: “We will be standing in 630 seats across the whole of England, Scotland and Wales. No ifs, no buts.”
The Reform UK leader later said that “about 500” candidates had already been approved, with “hundreds more” currently going through vetting.
He added that all 630 will have been selected by June 7, the deadline by which MP hopefuls have to submit their papers to the Electoral Commission.
Analysis for The Telegraph by the polling group More in Common found that if Reform secures 9 per cent of the vote the Conservatives will win 35 fewer seats as a result.
However, if it won 14 per cent, a level at which it has consistently polled in recent months, then the impact would be even starker, costing the Tories 64 MPs.
Mr Tice announced that he will be standing in Boston and Skegness, moving from Hartlepool which he contested for the Brexit Party back in 2019.
He made the remarks at a campaign launch event two hours after Mr Farage announced that he would not be one of the party’s candidates.
No sign of slowing down
Talk of his return to frontline politics may have proved premature, but so have any thoughts of Mr Farage leaving the political stage.
At the age of 60, Mr Farage shows no sign of slowing down. His friends say he has the energy of a 30-year-old, boundless enthusiasm for politics and for life in general, and loves being part of the national conversation.
The confluence of the British and American electoral cycles presents a unique opportunity for him to increase his presence on the international stage, raising his profile higher still before a possible shot at his dream of becoming prime minister.
From July to November he will divide his time between the UK and the United States, supporting his friend Donald Trump in the run-up to the presidential elections and resuming his evening show on GB News (which he will have to pause during the election).
Mr Farage has made no secret of his desire to take on a liaison role between the UK and the US if Mr Trump becomes president for a second time, and it would be a brave person who bet against that happening, given the close and genuine friendship between the two politicians.
In the same way that he forced Brexit to happen through sheer force of will, Mr Farage would be in a far more powerful position to influence British politics than he could be as a backbench MP.
Presidential terms last for four years, meaning that by the time of the next US election in 2028, when Mr Trump would not be a candidate, Mr Farage would be ready for the next phase of his planned ascent.
Mr Farage is convinced that Sir Keir will win the election in July and go on to make such a hash of running the country that voters will kick him out at the first opportunity, which is likely to be in 2029, though it could come sooner.
He also believes that voters will be so unconvinced by the alternative being offered by the Conservatives that a revolution in British politics will be on the cards and that Reform UK will overtake the Tories as the chosen party of the Right.
Mr Tice believes that he should be the one to take Reform UK into a likely 2029 general election. He, too, has grand visions of entering Number 10.
So that leaves the question of which party Mr Farage will stand for if he plays that final card in the years to come.
It is possible Mr Farage will replace Mr Tice as leader of Reform UK, and it is also possible that he could form yet another new party, having been through Ukip, the Brexit Party and Reform UK.
Could he, though, decide that his best chance of becoming prime minister would be as leader of the most successful electoral party of them all, the Conservative Party?
He was a Conservative until 1992 when he left in disgust at the signing of the Maastricht Treaty, and many Tory members would welcome him back with open arms.
Right now he insists that Reform is the only party for him. But five years is an awfully long time in politics.
