Tourist killings expose fragmentation of organised crime at the heart of Mexico’s extraordinary violence

The killings of the Australian brothers Callum and Jake Robinson and their American friend, Jack Carter Rhoad, have highlighted the shifting and uncertain fault lines of risk in Mexico, which is simultaneously a major tourism destination and a country with hotspots of extraordinary violence.

The trio, who in April went missing in the Pacific coast state of Baja California while on a surfing trip, were later found dead, each killed by a gunshot to the head. Mexican authorities believe that they were attacked by people who wanted to steal their car tyres and were killed upon resisting.

Related: Missing surfers died from gunshots after attempted robbery, Mexican officials say

The man accused of the killings, Jesús Gerardo known as “El Kekas”, is currently in custody, with murder charges expected to be filed. His girlfriend, who was also taken into custody, has reportedly turned witness against him, telling a court he said to her “I killed them”, gave her a mobile phone and showed her the allegedly stolen tyres on her car.

The murders are part of the violence that grips Mexico, which in 2023 saw more than 30,000 homicides for the sixth consecutive year. More than 100,000 people are also missing.

But beneath the national-level statistics, violence is hyper-concentrated in certain states.

“Baja California is one of them – but even there the bulk of homicides occur in Tijuana, and mostly in the poor areas,” said Falko Ernst, Mexico analyst for the nonprofit Crisis Group.

The violence in Baja California reflects the sheer volume of criminal business in the state, but also the instability of the criminal system itself.

Tijuana is the biggest border city in Mexico, which means huge flows of people, goods and cash going to and from the US every day. That makes Tijuana itself a prize to control, with a big local drug market and opportunities for money laundering.

Organised crime groups also have an interest in other parts of the state, for example the port in Ensenada – the nearest city to where the tourists’ bodies were found – which brings in drugs and chemical precursors for synthetics such as fentanyl and crystal meth.

Many groups are fighting to control these territories and businesses across Baja California.

“Tijuana is an emblem of the fragmentation of organised crime, where you don’t have one group running the show, but many,” said Ernst. “What ensues is perpetual fighting.”

This has been made more deadly by the torrent of US-made firearms trafficked over the border to Mexico. “Over the last couple of decades, guns have proliferated,” said Victoria Dittmar, a researcher for Insight Crime. “Now, anyone who wants a pistol can get one easily.”

Despite the violence, many tourists are drawn to Baja California for the beaches, waves and wildlife along a peninsula that stretches down to the resort towns of Los Cabos, on the southernmost tip of the state of Baja California Sur.

Given the number of visitors, it is striking how rare it is for tourists to be targeted. This is in part because organised crime groups also make money from the tourism industry – for example by extorting hotels, restaurants and nightclubs – and therefore rely on the continued flow of tourists.

“The fish you eat at that fancy restaurant may be subject to a kind of criminal taxation,” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, a researcher at the University of California at San Diego. “There could be a whole structure of criminal governance of which the tourist is unaware.”

Related: Parents of murdered Perth brothers say world a ‘darker place’ after Mexico tragedy

However, crime in Mexico is far from perfectly organised. There are independent actors and local cells making decisions on the ground and in the moment.

“We’re also talking about a world that is hyper-paranoid,” said Ernst. “If you’re in the wrong place at the wrong time, and somebody panics and thinks that there might be a risk for them, mistakes can be made.”

The speed of the investigation that followed the disappearance of the three surfers in Baja California reflects local authorities’ desire to relieve the external pressure and reassure tourists that they are safe in the state. Within days of the tourists being reported missing, three suspects were detained and the bodies were found at the bottom of a well on remote ranch land.

This is in a state where more than 80% of homicides go unpunished and roughly 20,000 people remain missing since 2006.

According to the Daily Beast, a member of the Sinaloa Cartel – one of Mexico’s largest organised crime groups – claimed to have tipped the authorities off on where to find the suspects so as to avoid “unwanted attention”.

“I think this case tells us a lot about how crime and the state tend to overlap in Mexico,” said Ernst. “Intelligence is not the problem – the problem is corruption and collusion, with many security forces on the take or even part of criminal networks.

“But if there’s external pressure, if elite and economic interests are potentially being affected, then the Mexican state is capable of getting things done.”.

“Sadly, there are tiers of victims. If you’re a foreigner, it is very likely they will find your remains,” said Farfán-Méndez. “But if you’re Mexican, you may never be found.”