Tory support among 2019 voters hits record low

Rishi Sunak during a speech in central London on June 24
The numbers come as a setback for Rishi Sunak ahead of polling day - Benjamin Cremel/AFP

Support for the Conservatives among people who voted for them at the last general election has fallen to a record low, a poll shows.

According to the survey, conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies from June 21-24, only 35 per cent of 2019 Tory voters are planning to stick with the party next week.

It is the lowest figure ever recorded by the polling company – two points lower than the previous nadir of 37 per cent, recorded last week.

Twenty-eight per cent of 2019 Tory voters said they would vote for Reform UK, which has been boosted by the return of Nigel Farage to front-line politics, while 19 per cent said they would vote for Labour.

The numbers come as a setback for Rishi Sunak as he tries to build momentum for the Tories, with polling day just over a week away.

In 2019, the Conservatives won an 80-seat majority under Boris Johnson, whose campaign centred on ending the Brexit deadlock and delivering Britain’s departure from the European Union.

But a number of high-profile government scandals, a record tax burden and high levels of net migration have hurt the party’s previous standing among its supporters that year, many of whom were voting Tory for the first time.

Constituency-level polling suggests the Conservatives could be on track to lose all of the gains they made in 2019 in the Red Wall – about 40 seats comprising mostly Northern and Midlands constituencies in traditional Labour heartlands.

Voters also have a more favourable view of Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, than of Jeremy Corbyn, his predecessor.

Redfield and Wilton’s national voting intention found Labour leading Reform, which remains in second place ahead of the Tories. Sir Keir’s party is on 42 per cent, Reform on 19 and the Conservatives 18, while the Liberal Democrats are polling at 12 per cent and the Greens at six per cent.

It is the joint-highest score Redfield and Wilton has recorded for Reform, and the joint-lowest level of support it has registered for the Tories.

Voters overwhelmingly expect a Labour government to be returned on July 4 – 68 per cent say that will happen – with only 16 per cent predicting a record fifth Conservative term.

New polling also shows that healthcare is the most important issue to Labour voters, immigration is most likely to sway Reform supporters and the economy is the most important issue to Conservatives.

Mr Sunak has promised further tax cuts and the eventual abolition of National Insurance while claiming Labour would raise taxes by £2,000 per household – a figure criticised by Britain’s statistics watchdog.

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