The Tories need a plan for the middle classes

Economic growth of 0.6 per cent in the first quarter of the year might not be much to shout about by historical standards, but nobody can deny that the UK is rebounding strongly from recession. “The economy is returning to full health,” said Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor. “And more important than that, the IMF says our long-term prospects are the strongest of any major European economy over the coming years.”

Earlier in the week, Mr Hunt had given an indication of the latest evolution in the Government’s message to voters in advance of the general election. Harking back to the beginning of this lengthy period of Tory-led rule, he said that the UK had been the fastest growing major European country since 2010.

In other words, judge the Conservatives not just on the somewhat chaotic years since the Brexit referendum, but on the total period they have been in office. Other highlights cited by Mr Hunt included near-record employment and the minimum wage reaching two-thirds of median earnings.

It is true that the Conservatives have had some notable successes since 2010, including Michael Gove’s school reforms and pension auto-enrolment. However, even ministers will struggle not to concede that the broader legacy of the past 14 years has been rather more complicated. Some of the promising steps that Rishi Sunak has taken in recent months – including his plan to increase defence spending and unwinding some of the worst excesses of net zero – involve clearing up messes left by his Conservative predecessors.

Mr Hunt’s mention of the minimum wage was also telling. Middle-class voters would have cause to feel frustrated that, quite often, Conservatives have prioritised groups that do not tend to vote for the party. Since 2010, great strides have been made to raise the earnings of the poorest workers, or to cut the amount of tax that lower-income people pay. But the middle classes have been hammered. There has been little effort to reward ambition, and the Treasury is now perilously reliant on higher earners to pay the bills.

If the Tories are to have any hope of closing the polling gap with Labour, it will patently not be enough to attack the Opposition’s plans or to bang on about relatively old victories. They will have to articulate what they intend to do with another five years in government, and that must include a vision for spreading mass prosperity.

It will not be easy territory for the party, which has strayed far from the philosophical ground occupied by Mrs Thatcher. But if the Conservatives aren’t the party of enterprise, hard work, and of rewarding people for doing the right thing, who else will be?