Thursday briefing: Will Trump’s day in court finally put off his loyal supporters?
Good morning. You may have received yesterday’s newsletter twice, it was accidentally resent in the afternoon and we apologise for the error and jamming up your inbox.
If today’s email feels like a repeat, it is only because the subject in question refuses to stay out of the headlines. In less than two weeks, Donald Trump will appear in court to face a criminal trial for allegedly falsifying business records to make hush money payments to former adult film actor Stormy Daniels. He will be the first former president to face a criminal trial in US history. The case in Manhattan is just one of four separate legal proceedings where the former president faces a total of 88 criminal charges, some of which could, theoretically, send him to jail.
Trump was fined $354.9m in February after a civil fraud trial, and is now banned from running a business in New York for three years. But that’s unlikely to trouble him as his social media company recently went public with an unlikely valuation of $8bn. That loss-making enterprise was reportedly kept afloat by a Russian-American businessman who is embroiled in a money-laundering investigation. Yet all of this doesn’t seem to have dented Trump’s chances of entering the White House for a second time.
For today’s newsletter, I spoke with the Guardian’s Washington bureau chief, David Smith, about Donald Trump’s campaign and how his trials are affecting his chances of becoming president once again. That’s right after the headlines.
Five big stories
Israel-Gaza war | The Israeli military’s bombing campaign in Gaza used a previously undisclosed AI-powered database that at one stage identified 37,000 potential targets based on their apparent links to Hamas, according to intelligence sources involved in the war. In the UK, three former supreme court justices are among more than 600 lawyers, academics and retired senior judges warning that the UK government is breaching international law by continuing to arm Israel.
Environment | Just 57 oil, gas, coal and cement producers are directly linked to 80% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions since the 2016 Paris climate agreement, a study has shown.
Agriculture | Farmers are calling for the government to grant them a universal basic income, saying the post-Brexit agriculture subsidy scheme has left many poorer.
UK news | A police sergeant has been found not guilty of raping a vulnerable woman after going to her home to take a statement after a domestic incident. David Stansbury, 43, who was a Devon and Cornwall officer at the time, was accused of attacking the woman on three occasions in Plymouth 2009 and telling her: “I am the law.”
Politics | More than a dozen politicians, advisers and journalists have been targeted in a phishing attack, in what cybersecurity experts believe is an attempt to compromise them. Twelve men working in Westminster, including a serving government minister, told Politico they had received unsolicited WhatsApp messages from two suspicious mobile numbers in the past six months.
In depth: ‘Trump’s base might be becoming more extreme but also shrinking at the same time’
Despite his best attempts at delaying the hush money trial, a judge has set a start date of 15 April. The case, brought by New York district attorney Alvin Bragg, alleges that Trump used campaign funds to pay off Stormy Daniels who threatened to go public with a story about an extramarital sexual encounter they had. According to the prosecution, Trump fixer Michael Cohen paid Daniels $130,000 and coordinated with the gossip tabloid the National Enquirer to give Karen McDougal $150,000 to keep stories of their encounters out of the news. Trump’s company then allegedly repaid Cohen $420,000 to cover those costs, fraudulently listing them as legitimate business expenses.
Trump is facing 34 counts of falsifying business records, which he has denied in typically Trumpian style, declaring the accusations against him as a Joe Biden-led attempt to interfere with the election. For more details on all of the cases, sign up to Cameron Joseph’s weekly Trump on Trial newsletter.
Though this is thought to be the least serious of the four cases against Trump – most legal experts do not think he will go to prison as a result – it will still be a highly sobering moment. “There’s a tremendous amount of noise and it does get confusing but when you have that crystal clear moment of the trial really starting it’ll suddenly feel very concrete,” David says.
Trump is also on trial for election interference in Georgia, his handling of classified documents, and federal election interference, which are all dragging along slowly. “There’s a widespread suspicion we may not get any of those before the election, given Trump’s expertise at blocking and delaying,” David says.
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Will a conviction affect Trump’s chances?
There is little doubt that if Trump is convicted in the hush money case he will continue to proclaim his innocence and blame Biden and the Democrats for weaponising the justice system against him.
But, despite unwavering support from his base, a criminal conviction could put an unwanted spotlight on Trump: “there’s a question of whether the Trump base might be becoming more extreme but also shrinking at the same time and a criminal conviction could throw that into sharp relief,” David says.
Polling indicates that moderate republicans and independents could be dissuaded from voting for a convicted criminal. An Ipsos poll with Politico found that more than a third of independents would be less likely to support Trump if he were found guilty, which, in a race that is widely predicted to be very close, could be the difference between winning and losing.
The real impact of the trials is difficult to predict because this is “uncharted territory”, David says. “When it is actually under way and there is damning evidence, running all day, every day and it’s getting saturated media coverage, it’ll be difficult for even Trump to avoid.”
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A different Trump
While the themes of Trump’s campaign largely remain the same – anti-immigration, anti-woke, reactionary politics – the tone and tenor of the campaign is more extreme and apocalyptic. “He’s running a campaign of vengeance and retribution and he’s more desperate because of the court cases hanging over him,” David says. The election is a war that Trump is fighting and there is nothing he will not say to paint a second Biden term as the end of democracy and America itself. This is not a metaphorical battle for Trump or his supporters, some of whom stormed the Capital in 2021 after he propagated the conspiracy that the election had been stolen by Biden, it is a very real fight for America’s soul.
The most troubling difference between Trump circa 2016 and Trump now is that he has been president before. “During that first term they were building the aeroplane in midair,” David says. “Trump was improvising and making policy on the fly but this time he has an entire infrastructure around him of people thinking about policy.” The campaign itself is better run and organised and they are well prepared for a second term. Conservative lawyers are calculating what kind of executive orders Trump could pass on day one in office if he wins, rightwing thinktanks are drafting policy papers that will ensure that he hits the ground running and his allies have been mapping out specific plans to punish critics. “And on top of all that, of course, Trump will not have people around him who are trying to restrain him, he’ll just appoint loyalists and lackeys,” David adds.
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What are his main policies?
Trump’s platform is not all doomsday bluster. He has pledged to deport illegal immigrants “by the millions per year”, with plans to conduct sweeping raids and build huge detention camps to hold people as their cases are processed. He also wants to resume construction of the border wall, impose import taxes and tariffs on imported goods from China and expand the use of the death penalty to include drug dealers. Rolling Stone reported that his close allies have been discussing bringing back hanging, death by firing squad and even the guillotine.
There is still an anti-Trump vote within the GOP – as is evident by those Republican voters still turning out to vote for his one-time opponent Nikki Haley in the primaries. Despite her withdrawal from the race a month ago over 10% of voters still backed her in each of the four primaries that happened on Tuesday. And while his base is becoming ever more fervent, it is not necessarily growing. Whether that proves decisive come November remains to be seen. “Trump did once famously say he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue in New York and not lose any voters and that was possibly the truest and most accurate thing he ever said,” David says.
What else we’ve been reading
The picture of a crying Asom Khan (above) became the face of Myanmar’s refugees; now the 15-year-old mute Rohingya boy is telling his own story through the use of photography, and creating some incredible imagery along the way. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
Matt Fidler has pulled together a selection of photos from the 24 winning projects in the World Press Photo competition. The images depict people in a whole host of circumstances while simultaneously speaking to universal themes that touch all of our lives. Nimo
Stable long-term employment feels like a thing of the past, but the always interesting André Spicer offers some hope for those looking at a zigzag career: “Sometimes, the best way to get ahead is to move sideways.” Toby
Alaina Demopoulos spoke with frustrated workers who ditched their companies HR departments and hired representatives of their own to aid them in their employment battles. Nimo
With the chance to purchase Covid booster jabs finally available in the UK it’s left many wondering whether they’re worth it – and why the NHS isn’t providing them more widely. Linda Geddes has the answers. Toby
Sport
Football | Manchester City did without Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne on Wednesday, relying on a scintillating hat-trick from Phil Foden to secure their 4-1 win against Aston Villa. After the stress of their 0-0 draw against City, Arsenal faced an easier ride with their 2-0 win against Luton.
Formula One | The woman who accused Red Bull team principal Christian Horner’s of inappropriate behaviour is “very upset, angry, scared, intimidated and lonely”, according to a friend of hers who has spoken to BBC Sport. “It’s impossible for people to understand what it’s like for her,” said the friend. “She can’t talk and she won’t talk.”
Football | Spanish police have detained the disgraced former football federation president Luis Rubiales on his return to the country amid a corruption probe.
The front pages
The Guardian leads with “Former supreme court judges add voices to calls for Israeli arms ban”. The i says “Gaza plunges into new aid crisis”.
The Telegraph reports “Judges to look at soft terms for ‘deprived’ offenders”. The Sun carries exclusive comments from the prime minister under the headline “Rishi: I’ll quit Euro court”.
The Financial Times reports “Google looks at launching premium AI-powered search behind paywall”. The Times has “Blood tests to help spot Alzheimer’s years earlier”. And the Mirror carries an animal abuse story on its front page, under the headline “Sick dog fight ring smashed”.
Today in Focus
Scotland’s new hate crime law
The Scottish government has introduced a hate crime law that broadens protections for marginalised groups but critics say it limits freedom of speech. Libby Brooks reports.
Cartoon of the day | Nicola Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Next Monday, North America will see its last solar eclipse until about 2044. The event will be the first for many young Americans, but for 105-year-old Laverne Biser it won’t be so novel.
In this Guardian article, the retired engineer and cosmos obsessive reflects on 60 years spent chasing eclipses from Maine to New Mexico, this upcoming solar eclipse (his 13th, which he will watch pass directly over his Texas home alongside his grandchildren), and his advice for first-time watchers. “You see one, you want to see them all,” says Biser.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
