The SNP is finished

When party officials have to brief journalists that their leader is “definitely not resigning”, you know that not everything in the garden is rosy.

This is where Scotland is right now, in the greatest political crisis since devolution began in 1999 and with the career of the first minister hanging in the balance.

Yesterday’s decision by Humza Yousaf unilaterally to end the agreement that, through the support of the Scottish Greens, gave his devolved administration a majority at Holyrood, has not had the soothing effect on the body politic that he might have expected. Instead, he faces two votes of no confidence in the parliament next week: one from the largest opposition party, the Scottish Conservatives, in Yousaf himself, and another, tabled by Scottish Labour, against the entire government.

There is no law, rule or precedent that says a first minister must resign after losing a vote of no confidence, but it’s extremely unlikely that Yousaf could remain in Bute House after such an eventuality (however much his political opponents might wish to see a “lame duck” first minister lead his party into this year’s UK general election).

The same is true of Anas Sarwar’s motion against the entire government, but his motion has a wider target than the one being proposed by the Conservatives: the entire ministerial ranks rather than just Yousaf personally. In the event that either motion succeeds, Yousaf’s position is politically untenable.

Sarwar may be kicking himself that he allowed the Scottish Tory leader to grab the limelight first with the announcement of his vote of no confidence, forcing Scottish Labour to come up with their own media-friendly wheeze. Three years ago, Nicola Sturgeon easily survived a vote of no confidence, again tabled by the Conservatives, after the parliamentary inquiry into her handling of complaints against her predecessor, Alex Salmond. It left Sturgeon stronger than ever. This time, Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross seems to have succeeded in making Yousaf’s life even more difficult.

While it’s true that, according to the Scotland Act that established the Scottish Parliament in the first place, the circumstances in which an early election can be held are rare (and requiring a two thirds majority of MSPs supporting such an outcome), the parliament’s own standing orders tell a slightly different story.

For example, were Yousaf to resign as SNP leader and first minister, either before or after either vote of no confidence, MSPs would have 28 days in which to elect a replacement. If they failed, an early election would be held. And those standing orders make the election by MSPs of a successor less straightforward than you might expect.

Any new candidate must secure the support of a plurality of MSPs, taking votes against and abstentions into account. With 63 out of 129 MSPs, the SNP are not guaranteed to win such a contest, since it is quite possible, arithmetically, that the votes for any candidate might be outnumbered by votes against (or abstentions) from the remaining.

To complicate matters, a tie for the top job results in no first minister being elected either, so even if the lone Alba MSP (and former SNP MSP) Ash Regan, were to vote for the SNP nominee to replace Yousaf, and the presiding officer (originally elected as a Green MSP, not taking part) there might still be no clear winner. And if 28 days elapse with no new first minister, it’s time for the public to have their say.

It’s all fun and games until somebody loses an eye. The soap opera of Holyrood is often more attractive to the public because the chamber itself is so deadly dull and too many of its members so deeply unimpressive as parliamentarians.

But while it’s too early to make solid predictions, this drama does feel like the dying days of the SNP administration. There are three alternative scenarios for the next few weeks and months, and none of them would be welcomed by the nationalists. The first is that Mr Humza survives these imminent votes and struggles on to lead his party into the general election, suffering inevitable losses on a scale of which we’re not yet sure.

The second is that he is forced out and is replaced by an alternative, probably Kate Forbes, whom he narrowly beat in the SNP leadership contest last year. Yet Ms Forbes’s membership of the Free Presbyterian Church and her social conservatism will not play well among a large swathe of party members (and MSPs and MPs), and would provoke further, damaging tensions.

Or third, Yousaf resigns and the parliament is unable to elect a replacement. In which case, all bets are off. No one expected a Holyrood election this side of a UK general election, and the only party that positively dreads that outcome is the SNP.

That’s the longer explanation of what’s going on in Scottish politics right now. The shorter, and just as accurate version, is summarised in a tweet from journalist John Ferry, which depicts the first minister as Wile E. Coyote, sliding into a hole of his own making.

Politics, especially in Scotland, is a brutal affair. Beep! Beep!