Monday briefing: What Putin’s victory means for Russia’s future
Good morning. It will not shock you to learn that Vladimir Putin has just been reelected as the president of Russia.
The election that took place over the last three days was a foregone conclusion even before the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. In his victory speech last night, Putin sought to present western criticism of the process as the predictable response of Russia’s enemies: “What did you want, for them to applaud us? They’re fighting with us in an armed conflict,” he said last night. “Their goal is to contain our development. Of course they’re ready to say anything.”
Whatever Putin says, the vast 87% of Russians claimed by Russia’s electoral commission to have backed Putin appears to be an inflated figure. But the best available polling still shows him with substantial support among the Russian public. That may partly be the result of a fatalistic sense that there is no other option in Russia – and events since Navalny’s death have done little to dispel that view.
Today’s newsletter, with the Guardian’s Moscow correspondent Andrew Roth, explains the results, the state of the opposition after Navalny’s demise, and what a new Putin term will look like. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Israel-Gaza war | Israeli forces have launched a major raid at al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City, with reports of heavy gunfire from the complex. Daniel Hagari, an Israeli military spokesperson, said early on Monday that “a high-precision operation” was underway based on “information indicating the use of the hospital by senior Hamas terrorists to command attacks”.
NHS | Hospitals are cynically burying evidence about poor care in a “cover-up culture” that leads to avoidable deaths, and families being denied the truth about their loved ones, the NHS ombudsman has warned. Rob Behrens said that while the NHS was staffed by “brilliant people”, too often his investigations into patients’ complaints had revealed cover-ups.
Conservatives | Rishi Sunak will lead the Conservative party into the next election despite reports of rebellious MPs plotting to oust him to avoid a wipeout at the polls, a senior cabinet minister has said. Mark Harper’s intervention followed speculation that rightwing MPs could seek to force a leadership contest after the failure of the budget to deliver a polling bounce for the party.
Cost of living | A record 6.7 million people in Britain are in financial difficulty, a campaign group has warned. A survey for Debt Justice found that 13% of adults had missed three or more credit or bill payments in the last six months, a figure that rose to 29% among 18- to 24-year-olds and a quarter of 25- to 34-year-olds.
Music | Steve Harley, the frontman of the British rock group Cockney Rebel, has died aged 73. The English singer and songwriter, best known for his 1975 song Make Me Smile (Come Up and See Me), had been receiving treatment for cancer. Read Alexis Petridis’ tribute.
In depth: ‘Every person who might have challenged Putin has been destroyed or co-opted’
Putin won 53% of the vote in 2000, 71% in 2004, 64% in 2012, and 77% in 2018. By that yardstick, 87% looks like a predictable progression.
“That number is goofy,” Andrew said. “It’s getting up there into the stratosphere, with the kind of numbers we used to only get in the most despotic regions of Russia, like Chechnya under Ramzan Kadyrov. The fact that Putin is claiming to win at that rate is more a reflection of his state of mind than the electorate … they used to have some restraint because they wanted to say this is a democratic country. It has turned into a coronation. They’re not worried about perceptions any more.”
***
Putin’s support
While the results are inflated, it is also true that Putin is the only prominent politician in the country with a wide base of support. “This is by no means a free and fair election,” Andrew said. “But you also have to acknowledge that he is the most popular politician in the country, and if there was a free election he would very likely win it.”
In assessing the real extent of his popularity, though, it’s also necessary to say that he has repeatedly cut off any opposition movement that might have competed against him before it had the chance to develop. “Every single person who might have challenged him has either been destroyed or co-opted by the system,” Andrew said. “Elections are about choices, and Russians don’t have any others.”
***
The protest on Sunday
Despite the comprehensive nature of Putin’s victory, there were signs of opposition on view yesterday, when some dissenting voters heeded the “Noon against Putin” call endorsed by Alexei Navalny’s widow Yulia to arrive at polling stations en masse at midday to form crowds and provide a symbolic – and relatively safe – protest.
Although it is impossible to arrive at exact figures, there were long lines at polling stations in Moscow and other cities, while exiled Russians also heeded the call at embassies around the world – including Yulia Navalnaya herself, who voted in Berlin (above). Dozens visited the cemetery in Moscow where Navalny is buried to leave their ballot papers on his grave, while human rights group OVD-Info said at least 80 people had been detained for election protests.
“They did what they had to do,” Andrew said. “They made sure their voice was part of the story about Putin winning this election – it’s an important symbolic protest, at least. But clearly this won’t change anything today. They will hope that it is part of building a protest base for the future with the cohesion and confidence to take action.”
There was never much chance of vast crowds showing up at any one place: the population is diffuse across a very large country, and most polling stations in Russia have fewer than 3,000 registered voters assigned to them. “The bar is pretty high to take part – you have to not only oppose the government, but also be willing to risk arrest,” Andrew said.
***
Managing dissent since Navalny’s death
Yesterday’s protests are not the first display of opposition to Putin since the death of Alexei Navalny. Rubber ducks have popped up in surprising places, like in a rose bush in St Petersburg or in a tributary of the Volga river, in a repurposing of a symbol that once stood for his fight against corruption. And if that seems like a tiny and relatively risk-free way to speak up, the thousands who came to his funeral – and many more who queued to visit his grave thereafter – look like a more tangible measure of disquiet.
“The funeral was quite significant,” Andrew said. “People chanting down with Putin – it was a symbolic recognition of the fact that there are still people in Russia who are against this war.”
At the same time, he cautioned, the state may be perfectly comfortable with such protests if they stay at a controllable scale. “They are pretty deft at managing protest and opposition,” Andrew said. “They could have refused to release his body, or forced the funeral to be held outside Moscow, but they recognised that this might be a moment to let the foot off the gas a little bit. These kind of symbolic acts are important, but nobody is going to be embarrassed or made fun of into giving up power.”
Last night, Putin claimed that he had agreed to a prisoner swap that would have seen Navalny’s release shortly before his death in an Arctic prison. “I agreed under one condition: we swap him, and he doesn’t come back. But such is life,” he said. “When things like that happen you cannot do anything about it – that’s life.”
***
The opposition’s response
The continued risks for those leading the opposition to Putin were made clear last week, when Leonid Volkov, a senior aide to Navalny in Lithuania, was attacked with a hammer outside his home.
“There’s not much doubt that that was ordered or motivated by the Russian government,” Andrew said. “It isn’t clear if they were trying to kill him – but it is clear that they are saying, you can be attacked anywhere, and reached anywhere. So there is certainly concern about more violence against opposition figures wherever they are in the world.”
In the month since Navalny’s death, his team have not yet put forward a concrete plan for the future – and there have been claims of an unwillingness to work with other opposition figures to present a united front. But, said Andrew: “There have been some signs of more collaboration.” Maxim Katz, another prominent opposition figure, “has been quite supportive of the Navalny team. And you’ve seen other opposition groups coming together behind the idea of voting for anyone other than Putin – although whether you should take part in a rigged election at all remains controversial.”
Yulia Navalnaya, meanwhile, “still seems to be working out what her role will be. I think it’s clear that she won’t be a figurehead, exactly, but she will be one of the symbolic leaders. She will need the support of people with more experience of the logistics of opposition. Many of them are in jail or in exile – so it’s hard to say exactly what the way forward will be.”
***
Putin’s new term
In this excellent primer on the outlook for Russia after the election, Andrew and Pjotr Sauer report that while his team sought to push him towards a more positive agenda, Putin was determined to focus on the war.
“It would have been the smarter political move to focus on social spending, for example,” Andrew said. “But he’s not done that. He’s ready to make the war a sacred mission for the country in the way world war two was, and to position Moscow as pushing back against the decadent west.”
The war has already transformed the economy, with 7.5% of GDP now spent on the military, the highest percentage since the end of the Soviet Union. “In the future, your part in the war effort is going to be a clear litmus test of whether you can play a role in leading Russia,” Andrew said.
“You’re seeing, for example, deputy chief of staff Sergei Kiriyenko visiting Avdiivka [a city in Ukraine] in a flak jacket – it’s almost absurd, this guy is a political nerd cosplaying at being a general. But they know they have to show that they’re on board. So that’s the change in Russia now – the transformation into a state that is totally focused on war.”
What else we’ve been reading
For Saturday magazine, Jenny Kleeman had a remarkable interview with Simon Bramhall, a surgeon who was struck off and convicted of battery for marking his initials on his patients’ livers with his scalpel (illustration above). Why on earth did he do it – and why did so many of his patients demand he be reinstated? Archie
ICYMI: Gary Younge is, as ever, brilliant in his analysis on the way that racism has become instrumental in British politics. Nimo Omer, Assistant Editor, First Edition
I loved Amelia Tait’s piece about the couples that actually found each other via those largely outdated “missed connection” ads. Wonderful as the success stories are, they are shadowed by a dizzying alternative: “Isn’t it scary to think about how close it came to never happening at all?” Archie
To make sense of the country’s present turmoil, Kenan Malik wrote for the Observer, “we need to understand not just where Haiti is today, but also how it got there.” His piece is a necessary reminder of the historic role western powers have played in suppressing democratic institutions and plundering Haitian resources. Archie
For her debut issue of British Vogue, editor Chioma Nnadi interviewed the “celestial” artist FKA twigs. The photographs are breathtaking and the conversation itself is expansive. A promising start to a new era of Vogue. Nimo
Sport
Football | Manchester United (above) came out on top in a dizzying FA Cup quarter-final against Liverpool at Old Trafford, Amad Diallo scoring the winner in the final minute of extra time to make it 4-3, before being shown a red card for his celebration. Meanwhile, two stoppage-time goals led Chelsea to a 4-2 victory against Championship leaders Leicester after the Premier League side had given up a 2-0 lead. In the Premier League, West Ham and Aston Villa drew 1-1.
Tennis | Iga Świątek continued to distance herself from her rivals as she clinched the Indian Wells title for a second time by dominating Maria Sakkari, the ninth seed, 6-4, 6-0. In the men’s final, Carlos Alcaraz successfully defended his title with a 7-6 (5), 6-1 win over Daniil Medvedev, the fourth seed.
Rugby | As the Six Nations comes to an end, Andy Bull reflects on England’s encouraging performances. “There’s no doubt England are in much better shape now than they were back at the start of the tournament,” he writes. “For the first time in a long time, it feels like they are on the upslope again.”
The front pages
The Guardian leads with “Watchdog condemns NHS ‘culture of cover-up’”. The Mirror also carries a healthcare story with “Dark ages dentistry”. The i has an update on the Post Office Horizon scandal with “Revealed: top secret UK military system still managed by Fujitsu”.
The Telegraph reports “Embattled PM urges Tories: Stick with me”, while the Times says “This is our bounce back year, Sunak tells critics”. The Mail looks at rumours that Penny Mordaunt is mounting a leadership challenge under the headline “Sunak allies’ rage at Penny”.
The Financial Times leads with “High Fed rates required for longer than markets expect, say economists”. The Sun reports that the Princess of Wales was spotted out on a public trip, under the headline “Kate outdoors”.
Today in Focus
What happens when you put a nursery in a care home?
At Belong Chester, residents spend their days with nursery-age children. What effect does it have on the wellbeing of both groups? Helen Pidd reports
Cartoon of the day | Nicola Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
After 61 years of marriage, Wilf Bishop’s wife, Janet, died of ovarian cancer. Their relationship was filled with adventure: skiing, hiking and sailing but as they grew older Wilf (pictured) gave up some of these activities out of fear of irreparable injury. After Janet died, he found himself longing to be on a mountainside again. That’s when he discovered snowshoeing: a low-impact activity that would allow him to walk to high altitudes without the risks of skiing.
Though it was strenuous, Wilf enjoyed the mental and physical challenge. At 82, he is now training to become an assistant, leading beginners on walks. “When we get older, we might drift out of sight a bit, but it’s our time to do whatever we please,” says Wilf. “It is what Janet would have wanted.”
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
