Monday briefing: Local election catastrophe for the Conservatives
Good morning.
A fraught situation is intensifying in Rafah, the city in southern Gaza where more than a million displaced people have been sheltering. Israel’s armed forces have this morning called for those in the “eastern neighbourhoods of Rafah” to “temporarily” evacuate to an expanded humanitarian area in Al-Mawasi. It comes after months of warnings that there would be a ground invasion of the beleaguered city as Israeli forces pursue Hamas militants. To keep a close eye on further developments, follow the Guardian’s live blog.
Today’s newsletter is taking a look at the aftermath of a week of English local politics. The Conservative party was braced for a hammering in the local and mayoral elections. They were right to be concerned: the Tories lost control of 10 councils and 473 seats, while Labour picked up 185 seats and won back councils it has not held in decades.
The bad news did not end there for Rishi Sunak. His party also lost 10 out of 11 of the mayoral races, including a defeat in York and North Yorkshire – which covers the prime minister’s own constituency – and West Midlands, which the party had hoped it would retain. The only reprieve for Sunak was Ben Houchen’s re-election as Tees Valley mayor, which brought much-needed confirmation that the Tories can still win, albeit with much reduced majorities, in red wall seats.
Meanwhile, Labour enjoyed victories in all the places it thought it needed to – and some where it thought it did not have a chance. For today’s newsletter, I spoke with Guardian political correspondent Kiran Stacey about the fallout from the week’s elections. That’s right after the headlines.
Five big stories
China | Xi Jinping has arrived in Paris for a rare visit against a backdrop of mounting trade disputes with the EU. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, is set to urge his Chinese counterpart to reduce trade imbalances and to use his influence with Russia over the war in Ukraine.
Israel-Gaza war | Israel used a US weapon in a March airstrike that killed seven volunteer paramedics in southern Lebanon, according to a Guardian analysis of shrapnel found at the site of the attack, which was described by Human Rights Watch as a violation of international law. In Jersualem, authorities shut down the local offices of Al Jazeera on Sunday, using newly approved laws. Critics called the move – which came amid faltering indirect ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas – a “dark day for the media”.
Immigration and asylum | Rwanda has admitted it cannot guarantee how many people it will take from the UK under Rishi Sunak’s deportation scheme. It did not give assurances that the estimated 52,000 asylum seekers eligible to be sent to Kigali would be accepted, instead saying it would be “thousands”.
Agriculture | The National Farmers’ Union warned that farmers’ confidence has hit its lowest level in at least 14 years, with extreme weather and the post-Brexit phasing-out of EU subsidies blamed for the drop. Most farms are expecting to reduce food production next year, with arable farming particularly badly hit.
Transport | Train drivers in the Aslef union are embarking on another round of industrial action, despite tentative attempts by the industry to restart talks. Drivers will strike for 24 hours at each of England’s national train operators from Tuesday until Thursday, while an overtime ban will apply nationwide from today until Saturday.
In depth: ‘It’s the worst of both worlds for the Conservatives’
Mayoral races
The most visceral loss for Sunak would have been the newly established mayoralty of York and North Yorkshire. “It would have been a big slap in the face as that was in his own back yard,” Kiran says.
Elsewhere, Andy Street’s seven years in power as the Conservative mayor for West Midlands came to an end over the weekend after losing to Labour by the narrowest of margins – the results were confirmed after a partial recount. Labour’s Richard Parker beat the incumbent by 1,508 votes, a result that left Street “devastated”. In 2021, he won 54% of the vote to Labour’s 46%, indicating just how narrow the political situation has become in the last few years. “Street losing is going to really infuriate a lot of One Nation Tories who feel the party has drifted too far to the right,” Kiran says.
It was the Tees Valley win that kept the anti-Sunak rebellion at bay in Westminster, though Ben Houchen’s vote share fell significantly from an extraordinarily high 73% in his last race to 53.6% this time around. It’s also important to acknowledge that Houchen ran a campaign that barely acknowledged the Conservatives or their brand, so the win may not be indicative of support for the broader party.
The other significant result was in London where, despite much fervour and speculation, Sadiq Khan won a record third term with 43.9% of the vote. The Conservative candidate Susan Hall managed to attract just 32.6%, after a campaign which a former Tory mayoral candidate described as “narrow” and “negative”. “Khan’s win is, in a way, a lesson for how Labour can win in urban areas,” Kiran says. “He’s taken stances on the war in Gaza that have been more vociferous, I would say, than national leadership, so I think they’ll have to pay a bit of attention to that. And, again, I think those moderate Tories are going to be angry about the fact that they managed to end up with Susan Hall as their candidate.”
As expected, Andy Burnham swanned to a landslide victory for Labour in Greater Manchester, winning almost two-thirds of the votes available. Steve Rotheram in Liverpool and Tracy Brabin in West Yorkshire also secured Labour victories, meaning that all of the big mayoralties are under Labour control.
But Kiran says it’s important not to read too much into what the mayoral races say about the national picture. “Each one of those contests was different and each one of them in a way has their own consequence,” he says. Local elections also tend to attract a lower turnout and voters are more likely to vote for independent or third-party candidates than they would in a general election.
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Things aren’t all good for Labour
Although Labour trounced the Conservatives overall, there were still issues that have led to nervousness in the party of late. Keir Starmer’s stance on the war in Gaza has continued to hurt Labour’s popularity among Muslim and more progressive voters – the party unexpectedly lost Oldham council and there was an almost 18% drop in the Labour vote in areas of England where more than a fifth of people identified as Muslim. Labour’s candidate beat Andy Street in West Midlands by such a narrow margin in part because independent candidate Akhmed Yakoob won nearly 43,000 votes with his Gaza-focused campaign. Pat McFadden, a senior Labour figure, said the party would “work to get people’s support back”.
“Pollsters tell me that these dips will not make a difference over the next election as Labour are getting more moderate or right-of-centre voters and so that’s the calculation they’ve made,” Kiran says. But there will be parts of the country where these margins will matter and any kind of splintering of the Labour vote will stop them taking some seats from the Tories. “There’s also a central belt in Scotland, where voters tend to be just a little bit more progressive than the average English vote. If Labour are now slightly counting on Scottish seats for their majority, then that’s going to be challenging,” he adds.
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What next for the Conservatives?
These calamitous results will only invigorate calls for the party to change its tack for the upcoming general election. On one side, more centrist Conservatives like Street will be urging his party’s leadership to move towards a more “moderative, inclusive, tolerant conservatism”. On the other, those on the right flank of the party, like former home secretary Suella Braverman, will be pressuring Sunak to adopt even more hard rightwing policies. The prime minister is likely to continue on with his plan to focus the party’s campaign on the economy, with the hope that inflation continues to come down and GDP goes up so people’s pockets will feel slightly heavier before they head to the polls.
“A lot of this, particularly on Braverman’s part, is about posturing for after the election,” Kiran says. Taking more hardline stances on trans rights and crime will not make an election victory more likely for the Conservatives, but a leadership election could be won by culture war issues. “In a way, it’s the worst of both worlds for the Tory party,” adds Kiran. “They don’t have another candidate or a plan to rally behind and yet nobody’s really getting behind the plan that they do have.”
What else we’ve been reading
Following the chaotic and often violent scenes on campuses in the US, where protesters have clashed with law enforcement, British students started mobilising their own pro-Palestine demonstrations. Neha Gohil spoke to some of them about their goals. Nimo
Since it debuted in 2014, Inside No 9 (pictured above) has injected some welcome weirdness into an often tired TV comedy landscape. The ninth and final run of Steve Pemberton and Reece Shearsmith’s brainchild begins this week, with Joel Golby praising a show that has swerved “Britain’s ‘kill all interesting television’ edict”. Hannah J Davies, deputy editor, newsletters
Michael Gonzalez’s dispatch from Texas takes a look at the state’s costly anti-immigration policy, which has not only devastated people’s lives but also has destroyed the environment on the border with Mexico. Nimo
I’m not sure I’ve ever wanted to eat anything more than Benjamina Ebuehi’s double chocolate and mascarpone traybake. Get the recipe here, and learn more about the Guardian’s freshly baked Feast app for iOS here. Hannah
Everything in moderation: overdoing exercise can be very detrimental to your body, writes Rod Gilchrist, a “running junkie” who has undergone two knee replacements. Nimo
Sport
Formula One | Lando Norris won the Miami Grand Prix for McLaren in a historic first victory for the British driver. Norris comprehensively beat the triple world champion Max Verstappen into second place to take the flag for the first time after 110 race starts since making his debut in Australia in 2019.
Women’s Super League | Chelsea thrashed Bristol City 8-0 to take control of the title race. In other matches: Liverpool 1-0 Manchester United; West Ham 1-1 Leicester.
Premier League | Tottenham’s hopes of a Champions League place were dealt a major blow after a late rally failed to prevent a 4-2 defeat at Liverpool.
The front pages
“Labour sets sights on ‘blue wall’ seats at next election” says the Guardian this morning. “Dozens of pro-Gaza activists elected” – trust that to be the Daily Mail’s take on the local elections. “Sunak shelves summer election” says the Daily Telegraph while the Daily Express has “Only big tax cuts and growth can save Tories now” and the Times goes with “UK heading for a hung parliament, says Sunak” (never mind that the Tories had one in 2010, and again in 2017). “Our hearts are heavy, the pain is deep … our faith is strong” – the Daily Mirror goes to the church where sword victim Daniel Anjorin was baptised. “Tories warn Sunak he needs ‘vision’ to repair party after poll drubbing” – that’s the Financial Times which seems to have left the i to do its job: “Interest rate cuts unlikely before August, experts warn”.
Today in Focus
How do we protect teenagers from sextortion scams?
Murray Dowey, a 16-year-old from Dunblane, was targeted by a sextortion scammer in the hours before he took his own life. Now his parents are raising awareness of this increasingly prevalent crime, Libby Brooks reports.
Cartoon of the day | Nicola Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Phil Daoust’s quest to live to 100 continues, and in this week’s instalment of his Fit for ever column he meets someone who isn’t too far off that milestone himself. At 93, John Starbrook is the oldest polo player at Hampton Pool in south-west London and, says Daoust, probably the oldest in the country. A keen swimmer and gymgoer, he has also completed 52 marathons, raising over £50,000 in the process, mostly for the charity Age UK. “A lot of people seem to think that when they hit 50, they’re old,” says Starbrook, who is known to friends as “the Legend”. “I hear that and I don’t know what they’re talking about.”
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
