The moment Humza Yousaf signed his own political death warrant

When Humza Yousaf announced at a press conference last Thursday that he was ending his power-sharing arrangement with the Greens, no one present, least of all the First Minister himself, was aware that he was signing his own political death warrant.

But over the past few days it became increasingly clear that Mr Yousaf faced a fight for his political life.

Scottish Green members furious that his government had dumped its key climate change target had been scheduled to vote next month on whether they wanted to remain in coalition.

Pressed on whether he had acted because it was “better to do the breaking up than be dumped”, Mr Yousaf smirked as he replied: “I wouldn’t know, personally, I have to say.”

Four days later he is holding another press conference at his official Bute House residence, this time to announce his resignation, as his hubris and an astonishing political miscalculation combined to end his short tenure as First Minister.

The news is astonishing because he has not forced out by his party and had not endured an election night thrashing (although the latter was expected later this year). Instead the fatal blow that ended his premiership was inflicted by himself.

Mr Yousaf’s abrupt dumping of the Greens was a remarkable about-turn from his previous public comments on the deal.

When he ran to succeed Nicola Sturgeon, he described the coalition pact as “worth its weight in gold” in contrast with his two opponents who would have torn it up.

When he narrowly won the contest in March 2023, eyebrows were raised within the SNP when his first photocall was with Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater, the Green co-leaders who had been handed ministerial posts.

However, the deal was never popular with sections of his party and there was growing alarm that it could lead to disaster at the general election.

Focus on identity politics

SNP MPs report that on the doorsteps, as they battled to save their seats, voters repeatedly criticised a perceived focus on identity politics and lambasted the party for being out of touch with their priorities.

The botched implementation of Mr Yousaf’s Hate Crime Act and a renewed focus on transgender issues, following the publication of the Cass Review, only added to disquiet within the Westminster group.

While the Green leadership insisted they could win the backing of members in the upcoming vote on the deal, their presence in government made it difficult for the SNP to pivot away from issues which were unpopular with voters but red lines for Green members.

Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s Westminster leader, is believed to have made his views clear to Mr Yousaf when the pair met on Wednesday, hours before he tore up the Bute House deal.

Mr Flynn is an Aberdeen MP, and the association with the Greens, who unapologetically want to bring an end to the North Sea oil and gas industry, was a continued headache.

While many believe ending the agreement was the correct thing to do, there was bafflement at how Mr Yousaf handled the divorce.

While the prospect of a vote of no confidence had been considered before he tore up the deal, Mr Yousaf simply did not believe the Greens would vote with the Tories to bring him down.

But, after a dramatic session of First Ministers’ Questions on Thursday, at which Douglas Ross duly confirmed he would lodge a no confidence motion in Mr Yousaf, the Greens quickly confirmed they would vote against the First Minister.

‘Fit of temper’

“It could have been handled in a completely different way,” Liz Lloyd, who was Nicola Sturgeon’s chief of staff, said. “There was absolutely no reason to throw them out in a fit of temper at 8 o’clock in the morning.

“I can’t figure out what it was that drove the First Minister to do that, or drove somebody to give him advice to do that.

“Over years, a respect agenda has been built up [with the Greens] whether you agree with what they think or not. They were owed a fair amount of respect.”

On Thursday night, Mr Yousaf is believed to have been in a “reflective” mood and he considered quitting at crisis talks in his Holyrood office.

He was persuaded to fight on. On Friday, the embattled First Minister cancelled a planned speech on independence but instead made an appearance in Dundee, announcing £80 million for affordable housing.

He said he intended to win the confidence votes and tried in vain to make amends with the Scottish Greens, saying he had not intended to “upset” them by kicking them out of government.

However, his offer to find compromise was swiftly rejected, with Mr Harvie saying the Greens could no longer trust him and calling on the SNP to choose a new leader who could win support of a majority of MSPs.

The strength of feeling within the Greens was made clear later on Friday when Gillian MacKay, one of the seven Green MSPs, broke down in tears live on BBC Radio Scotland when discussing the end of the coalition.

She claimed Mr Yousaf was saying to her party “you’re dumped but can we still be friends” and demanded his resignation.

Ian Blackford, the former SNP Westminster leader, did offer the Greens a public apology on Sunday morning but within an hour, this too had been rejected with Ms Slater saying Mr Yousaf would have to face “consequences” for his actions.

It left Ash Regan, the sole MSP from Alex Salmond’s Alba Party, as Mr Yousaf’s only possible route to survival.

Mr Salmond had been doing the rounds on Sunday morning television laying out his party’s list of demands for keeping Mr Yousaf in power.

But the spectre of Mr Salmond pulling the strings, not just in the confidence votes but going forward, was too much for many on the SNP to stomach.

Pete Wishart, the SNP’s longest-serving MP, said Mr Salmond must be told “quite clearly” that he could “never, ever” have influence over the Scottish Government.

Stewart McDonald, another senior SNP MP, warned an agreement with the former first minister “would go down like a bucket of cold sick with voters”.

Salmond too unpalatable

One senior parliamentarian who was part of the party’ discussions over Mr Yousaf’s future told The Telegraph: “There would be the whole narrative of ‘Salmond saves the SNP First Minister’.

“We would also be beholden to him all the way through for the next two years (to the 2026 Holyrood election).”

By Sunday, Mr Yousaf’s options had narrowed to the point where it appeared inevitable he would have to resign.

He had previously ruled out an early Holyrood election, but with the SNP plummeting in the polls and facing financial difficulties, this was never seen as a realistic option.

Senior SNP insiders said the “door had been closed” for talks with either Ms Slater or Mr Harvie.

However, desperate attempts were being made to pursue some of the other five Green MSPs to change their minds. Sources close to Mr Yousaf admitted these had little chance of success, and so it proved.

When he abruptly tore up his deal with the Greens on Thursday morning, Mr Yousaf repeatedly insisted his were the actions of a decisive and strong leader.

However, just 13 months and one day after he took office, it is set to go down as a reckless gamble which has ensured his chaotic and hapless tenure in Bute House has ended in ignominy.