Met Police ability to tackle crime set to deteriorate

The Metropolitan Police’s ability to tackle crimes such as robbery, theft and violence is “likely” to worsen because of a recruitment crisis, the force has warned in an internal report.

The Met says there will be “potentially severe” consequences and a “significant impact” on its ability to police the capital unless its recruitment and retention crisis is resolved. The force predicts it will be short of 1,400 officers by the end of the year on a total complement of 34,415.

The report, revealed under freedom of information laws, warned this would not only affect “volume” crimes like robbery and theft but also have “significant impacts” on rape victims and the force’s ability to reduce the number of sexual offences by bringing criminals to justice.

The force said it could not recruit enough officers to meet the “present demand” of policing London or tackle key areas of reform such as reducing the workloads of specialist rape investigators. Each officer is currently working on 30 cases at once, when watchdogs have ordered the ratio should be halved to 1:15.

The candid assessment has been laid out in the Met’s submission to the Government’s independent pay review body where it is calling for an above inflation pay increase for officers and £2,000 uplift in London weighting for staff.

It piles pressure on James Cleverly, the Home Secretary, and Sadiq Khan, the London Mayor, to fight the Met’s corner in upcoming pay negotiations with the Treasury as Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley tries to turn the force round and take it out of special measures.

“If we are not able to meet our workforce challenges and recruit and retain officers to meet all our pressures the consequences are potentially severe,” said the submission.

“Firstly, our performance on volume crime investigation is likely to worsen – given the high volume of officers needed to effectively meet present demand and deal with the offenders perpetuating these crimes. This includes robbery, theft, violence against the person and other high volume offences.”

Second, it said the “continuing challenge” of rape investigators’ heavy caseload would have “significant impacts on victims and our ability to effectively reduce harmful crime like rape and other sexual offences”.

Abstractions crisis from policing protests

Thirdly, it warned that policing protests including by pro-Palestinian campaigners was creating a “deepening abstractions crisis”. It meant officers were being diverted from specialist and frontline roles to leave gaps across the Met and undermine the force’s ability to meet “other crime challenges”.

“Protecting the public from serious harm will always be a priority, and where the supply of officers is limited, less will be available to tackle crimes that affect more people on a day-to-day basis, such as robbery, burglary, theft and anti-social behaviour,” said the submission.

“Our aspiration remains to deliver a service that can tackle harm in terms of both impact and volume, without attracting officers this is at risk for the public.

“Proactive community-based policing, essential for delivering on local priorities, will become increasingly challenging to staff, distancing policing from the communities they serve.”

Competition from private sector salaries

The report said police were struggling, like other public services such as hospitals and schools, to recruit because they could not compete with private sector salaries, at the same time as potential recruits faced a cost of living crisis.

Sir Mark said: “Policing is challenging enough without the added strain that concerns about the cost of living are placing on officers. They’ve seen a 16 per cent real terms cut in pay since 12 years ago. This year we are joining forces across the country in calling for a pay rise at or above the rate of inflation.”

He added: “I am deeply concerned that steadily falling officer numbers is degrading the service to London and slowing reform.”

A Conservative party source  said: “Sadiq needs to get a grip of his police force. He is the only PCC in the country that has failed to hit their police recruitment targets despite government funding. He needs to step up to keep London safe.”

A spokesman for Mr Khan said: “The Government has chronically underfunded the Met since 2010, cutting police funding by more than £1 billion. Since 2016, the Mayor has repeatedly tried to plug this huge funding gap, but is doing so with one hand tied behind his back.”