Will Lee hit Florida as a hurricane? Here's how to know when to take storms seriously
The worst part of any hurricane or tropical storm obviously is the damage to lives, homes, communities and infrastructure. Six days after Hurricane Idalia crashed across the Big Bend area of Florida, many people were still dealing with flooding and property damage and over 12,000 customers were still without power.
After that, the worst part of the hurricane season may be the waiting.
As of Tuesday, Sept. 6, Tropical Storm Lee was forecast to become a powerful Category 4 hurricane by the end of the week, and the current forecast cone (which only predicts five days ahead) shows it heading toward Florida. Most forecasters believe it will turn north and possibly threaten the East Coast of the U.S., but there's always the possibility it will strike our state. The uncertainty can be maddening.
What does the forecast cone mean?
What are spaghetti models?
How seriously should you take tropical storm watches?
When should you put up shutters or buy plywood?
When should you evacuate?
These are all questions you'll have to answer for your own personal situation, and every storm can surprise us at the last minute. Here are some guidelines to help you decide.
When should I start taking a storm seriously?
Short answer: When officials tell you to.
The Atlantic basin, the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico are all being watched very carefully by meteorologists trained at predicting storm movements and variables, and they have a better track record than your neighbor who assures you hurricanes never hit here and they aren't that bad anyway.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues regular updates on its website and on Facebook and X (formerly known as Twitter) and there is a lot of information to get there. Look for the storm in question and check these links:
Key Messages: If you're looking for the quickest forecast for a storm, click on Key Messages. This will be a short list of the main points everyone needs to know, such as the storm's location and threat level, and forecast cone maps.
Public Advisory: The advisory lists the latest information, location, speed and likely effects with a general idea of where it's headed and who will be affected. During major storms. This updates every five hours for minor or distant storms and every three hours for major or imminent ones, with occasional alerts if big changes happen between updates.
Forecast Discussion: This is a more detailed discussion, with lots of meteorological terms that can be hard to follow. But you can get a more comprehensive idea of what forecasters think will happen.
Check the maps: Each storm will have a series of forecast maps that can give you an idea of what might be expected. The most familiar is the Forecast Cone, which gives you the latest prediction of where the storm will go and when it will arrive. Wind Speed Probabilities indicate where winds of tropical storm force or higher may strike, and Arrival Time of Winds tells you when that might happen. Note that these maps are based on the latest information and the situation can change.
FloridaDisaster.org, from the Department of Emergency Management, offers updates as well as emergency information on looming, striking and passed storms, where to find shelters, where to get food and water, and how to apply for assistance if necessary. It also updates on Facebook and X. And check your local county emergency site for specific information.
Local newspapers (like this one) are dedicated to getting you the most up-to-date information possible and helping answer questions. Follow hurricane coverage from your local newspaper for impacts in your area. Consider downloading a weather app on your phone that can send alerts, and keep a battery-powered radio available to monitor the situation.
Do not assume that because a storm has never hit your area it means one never will. With increasingly hot oceans and changes in ocean patterns, anything is possible. It was very rare for a major storm to make landfall in the Big Bend but one just did (Hurricane Idalia).
What is the difference between a hurricane watch and a hurricane warning?
The NHC issues alerts to warn residents of imminent dangers.
Watches for storm surge, tropical storms, and hurricanes are issued when those conditions are expected in your area within 48 hours. If you haven't yet, this is the time to prepare your home. You should already have an emergency plan in place. Monitor the news or the NHC alerts for instructions from local officials.
Warnings for storm surge, extreme wind, tropical storms, and hurricanes are issued when those conditions are expected in your area within 36 hours. Finish your preparations, it may not be safe to do so very soon. Monitor the news or the NHC alerts for instructions from local officials and be ready to evacuate if told to.
An extreme wind warning is issued if winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater) are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter inside a well-built structure.
A tornado watch is issued when conditions for a tornado are present. Make your plans and be ready to move. A tornado warning is issued when a tornado has been spotted and there is imminent danger to life and property. Take shelter immediately.
What are spaghetti models?
Spaghetti models — forecasted storm paths by different agencies that may be using different data or methods of analysis, often presented together on a chart like a pile of multicolored noodles — have become more common in storm reporting.
They can vary wildly, especially as they look farther into the future, but taken all together they can give you a sense of the general consensus of where a storm will end up. If there isn't a consensus and the spaghetti models are all over the place, that lets you know that forecasters aren't certain and you should keep a close eye on it.
Global forecasting models are better for the big picture, and regional models can help you get more granular.
How accurate is the forecast cone?
When a storm is coming, locals watch for updates and a new "cone of uncertainty." Will the path move? Is the storm heading our way now?
Also called the "cone of concern" or the "cone of death," the NHC's forecast cone represents the probable track of the center of a storm. It's used to show the forecast for up to five days, at 12-hour intervals, starting from the last recorded position of the storm.
But the width of the cone does not show the storm's size or impact and it doesn't indicate a line where residents are sure to be safe. The cone indicates where the center of the storm is most like to go over the next five days. The actual storm can be (and usually is) much bigger than the cone and can disastrously affect a much broader area.
The center of the storm stays within the cone for roughly two out of every three forecasts, according to the NHC.
When should I prepare for a hurricane?
At the end of May. But any time during the hurricane season (June 1-Nov. 30) is a good time to get ready for a storm. Keep your important papers stored safely, keep loose things out of the yard, stock up on nonperishables and water, make sure your insurance is in order and have a plan ready.
To stay ready, try taking every named storm whether it's heading your way or not as a reminder to refresh your hurricane plans and supplies, just in case. Better to have them and not need them than the other way around.
If a storm is forecast to affect your area, start your hurricane prepping in earnest as soon as you can. Clean the yard, take down anything that could become a projectile, get your food and water and batteries, plan for extended power outages. It can seem awkward to do this when there's a clear blue sky out there, but by the time it looks stormy it may be too late.
Is a hurricane coming to Florida? Here's what to do when a hurricane is on the way
When should I put up hurricane shutters?
According to the National Hurricane Center, you should put up your hurricane shutters when a hurricane watch is announced for the area where you live, generally within 48 hours of hurricane-force winds. You should plan on protecting your windows with shutters or thick plywood (not tape) before winds get to 75 mph or more.
When should I evacuate for a hurricane?
If authorities tell you to evacuate, go. They have evaluated the conditions and decided it's not safe even in sturdy, well-built buildings. Rescue agencies will not be able to respond to calls for help after wind speeds reach a point where it's too dangerous. Bridges also could be closed as a storm approaches.
You also may need to evacuate if your own residence isn't up to hurricane-force winds or you are in an area susceptible to storm surge or general flooding, or you live in a mobile home. You know your neighborhood best. If there's flooding or trees start coming down, are you safe? Are trees likely to block roads? Do you have children or pets or seniors or people with special needs? You may want to consider getting to a safer place.
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This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Florida hurricane season: Spaghetti models, forecast cone details
