Labour lead increases as poll shows Sunak ‘struggling to change dial’
Labour is 18 percentage points ahead of the Tories in a new opinion poll, with one pollster warning that nothing Rishi Sunak does seems to “change the dial”.
With the next general election at most nine months away – and more likely around six – Sir Keir Starmer’s party continues to hold a vast lead over the Conservatives.
The latest Telegraph-Savanta poll has Labour on 43 per cent of the vote and the Tories on 25. The Liberal Democrats are on 10 per cent, with Reform UK on 9 per cent.
It has now been six months since Savanta had the Tories above 30 per cent. At the last general election in 2019, the party won 42 per cent.
The continuing struggle to close the polling gap has contributed to disillusionment on the Tory benches and frustration about the leadership and direction of the party.
But there was some good news for Downing Street in the poll, which found that Mr Sunak’s phased cigarette sale ban is overwhelmingly supported by the public.
Some 59 per cent backed the policy, which was passed by MPs on Tuesday and effectively bans anyone aged 15 or younger today from legally buying cigarettes.
Only 20 per cent opposed the move and there was no major difference between those who voted Tory and Labour at the last election, despite some Tory MPs claiming the policy was “unconservative”.
Savanta’s result is broadly in line with other research companies, with the average Labour lead across pollsters around 19 per cent. The gap has not narrowed this year.
Chris Hopkins, the political research director at Savanta, said: “As MPs return to Parliament this week, our latest voting intention shows the scale of the challenge facing Rishi Sunak.
“It’s not just that he is so far behind Labour in the polls, it’s that he has been for so long and nothing seems to change the dial – the Conservatives haven’t recorded 30 per cent in a Savanta poll for over six months now.
“The Prime Minister has another potentially difficult week, which he hopes will be capped off by his Rwanda scheme passing through Parliament and inflation dropping once more. Whether that is enough to stave off a drubbing in the upcoming local elections remains to be seen.”
Around 2,200 adults across the UK were asked for their views online by Savanta between April 12 and 14. Labour’s 18-point lead is up from last week’s Telegraph-Savanta result, which had the party 15 points ahead.
The next general election must be held by January 2025 at the latest, but it is widely expected in the autumn.
Downing Street insiders have played up the possibility of events in the coming months improving Tory chances when the vote eventually comes.
Inflation is expected to drop below the Bank of England’s two per cent target this year, allowing Mr Sunak to claim credit after making reducing it one of his five priorities in office.
The Prime Minister’s legislation designed to get Rwanda deportation flights going is expected to pass Parliament and get Royal Assent this week. He hopes the first flight will take off in the spring.
But Tory critics are planning to raise fresh questions about his leadership in the wake of the May 2 local elections, when the party could lose half its council seats being voted on.
