A Labour government is not inevitable
Thursday’s vote was a bruising one for the Conservative Party. In Blackpool South the party recorded its third worst ever performance in a parliamentary by-election, finishing just 117 votes ahead of Reform UK, while council seats tumbled across the country.
The bad news did not end there. As Sir John Curtice pointed out, Reform stood in just one sixth of the seats contested. Had it put forward a full slate, as it intends to at the general election, then Rishi Sunak’s night might have been even worse. Understandably, Sir Keir Starmer was in buoyant mood, declaring his party’s win in Blackpool a “seismic” result and challenging the Prime Minister to call for a general election. Dig a little deeper below the results, however, and he might not feel so assured.
Despite its successes, Labour has not yet sealed the deal with the electorate. The estimated national vote based on the results puts Labour on 34 per cent to the Tories 25 per cent – and short of an overall majority. And in major mayoral races, things have not gone the party’s way. In the Tees Valley, Ben Houchen emerged victorious, giving a lifeline to the party’s hope of clinging on to vital Red Wall seats. In London, where the count begins on Saturday, there is speculation that Susan Hall may have outperformed the polls.
If Labour is underperforming polling in the most important and prominent races, it will give the Tories heart that the dire national figures are not set in stone. If they perform strongly in these, the narrative will shift. It is also true, as Foreign Secretary David Cameron remarked, that experience has shown the party can have “bad local election results and go on and win a general election”.
There are more reasons for Labour unease. In the West Midlands, the party is briefing that Conservative Mayor Andy Street is expected to win. One Labour source blamed the Gaza conflict, arguing that it was “the Middle East, not West Midlands” that had driven the vote. The party rapidly disowned these remarks, but visible faultlines are emerging in the party’s coalition.
As Sir John noted, Labour’s vote was down by eight points in wards where Muslim voters made up more than one tenth of the population. This pattern led to a shock defeat for the party in Oldham, where it lost overall control of the council, and to lost seats in Newcastle and Bolton. For his part, Sir Keir acknowledged that the party’s stance on Gaza had cost it votes. It could cost it again at the general election.
One of the most significant developments took place away from the polls. In Scotland, John Swinney appears to have reached an understanding with Kate Forbes that will likely see him become first minister of Scotland next week. If he is able to pull the SNP from its spiral, then he may deny Labour vital seats in its pursuit of a majority.
There are, then, strands of hope for the Conservatives to cling to. But for now that is all they are. The fundamental takeaway from Thursday night is still that the Conservatives must find a way to excite the electorate. It is interesting in this light to note that the most prominent and colourful figures within each party are for the present in the shadows.
Tony Blair has yet to state what, if any, role he will play in a Starmer administration. Jeremy Corbyn may still decide to contest his old seat as an independent. Nicola Sturgeon, and the ongoing Police Scotland investigation into its party finances, hang over the heads of the SNP. For the Tories, there is the question of what role Boris might play in the campaign. And with Reform riding high in the polls, it is an open question whether Nigel Farage would wish to take another tilt at Westminster. That these former leaders may still play a role in determining the election is unusual.
The emphasis of their successors on policy over charisma has been welcomed by commentators who see it as a rejection of populism, but it is hard to argue that it has been as popular with the electorate. The sense of greyness clinging to British politics may be why the results do not appear to show a country eager for a Labour government, but a country that lacks a reason to vote for a Conservative one.
Mr Sunak should take this to heart. His dedication to the intricacies of policymaking is one of his strengths, but he must sell the fruits of his labour to voters. It is notable that his greatest successes in breaking through with the public have come when he has been willing to make bold choices, whether facing down the SNP on gender ID, pushing through the Safety of Rwanda Bill, or delaying elements of Net Zero. It is time he learnt from these successes.
