Will there be ‘horror’ thunderstorms across the UK this week?

Glasgow, Scotland, UK. 18th June, 2024: UK Weather: Wet and hot sunny day in the city in the city saw strange sky with a rainbow over the towers of scotstoun and the queen elizabeth hospital; . Credit Gerard Ferry/Alamy Live News
A rainbow in Glasgow after wet and sunny conditions on Tuesday. (Alamy) (gerard ferry)

Reports of of potentially significant thunderstorms in the coming days have been branded "uncertain" by weather experts.

Following heavy showers in Yorkshire, the East Midlands, and parts of the North West and North West on Tuesday night - with 30mm of rain expected to fall in one hour in isolated places - most of the UK is expected to remain dry with sunshine for the remainder of the week.

However, there have been some reports that a huge thunderstorm will hit the UK within the next week, with one media outlet claiming it could bring 10 days of rainfall in three hours.

The Daily Mirror reported that parts of the south and south east of England could experience such a deluge within the week, calling it a "horror" thunderstorm.

The crowd shelter under umbrellas as the rain delays play on day one of the cinch Championships at The Queen's Club, London. Picture date: Saturday June 15, 2024. (Photo by Jordan Pettitt/PA Images via Getty Images)
The crowd at Queen's Club in London shelter under umbrellas on Saturday. (PA Images) (Jordan Pettitt - PA Images via Getty Images)

It said it used data from weather visualisation platform Ventusky, which allows users to apply forecasting models from all over the world - including the Met Office's - to its mapping service.

Yahoo News UK approached Czech-based Ventusky for comment, and its chief executive David Prantl said the US weather model, the Global Forecast System (GFS), has predicted extremely heavy rain in that area of the south east for Friday morning, 21 June.

However, he pointed out that the other models it uses - the German ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic modelling framework (ICON) and the UK's European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) - have not forecast any rain at all in that area at that time.

Prantl said: "It is a very uncertain forecast and we primarily offer the ICON model on Ventusky, which does not expect these precipitations."

The Met Office has not forecast any rain in that area on Friday in its maps on its website.

Apart from the north of England, where the thunderstorm warning is forecast, the rest of the UK should enjoy fine weather with much higher temperatures than we've been used to so far in June.

The Met Office says temperatures will rise to as much as 25C by Thursday and Friday.

Minster on Sea, Kent, UK. 17th May, 2024. UK Weather: sunset in Minster on Sea, Kent. Credit: James Bell/Alamy Live News
The sunset at Minster on Sea, Kent, on Monday. (Alamy) (James Bell)

Met Office deputy chief meteorologist Mark Sidaway said: “In stark contrast to the first half of June, where temperatures have widely been below average, we are expecting to see a steady uptick through the second half of this week, rising to around or above average, and it will likely feel very warm for those in the sunshine."

However, he warned that the weather will turn "more changeable" through Friday and into the weekend, with cloud and rain expected across the UK.

While the weekend may be unsettled, next week could see a quick return of higher temperatures.

In its long range forecast for Monday 24 June to Wednesday 3 July, the Met Office said: "Predominantly fine and settled through the period and for much of the country turning much warmer than we have seen in recent weeks.

At first some thicker cloud could bring some outbreaks of mostly light rain, this mainly affecting northwestern areas. However for most it will be dry throughout, and likely to turn increasingly warm as we move into next week.

"There is a chance that this could persist for much of the rest of the period, turning increasingly hot, however by the latter part of next week we see a large range of outcomes, some of which allow for a return of temperatures closer to average. However the trend toward much warmer conditions continuing through next week is preferred."

The UK experienced the coolest first 10 days of June since 2020, in contrast to the hottest June on record this time last year, when it was as hot as 32.2C in Lincolnshire and Surrey.

The Met Office told Yahoo News UK on Tuesday that June has been cooler than average, but that rainfall has been around average for the for the time of year, although a little above average in Scotland, particularly in the north.

Last month, the Met Office dismissed reports there would be up to 50 days of rain this summer, which would be close to the record of 55 days set more than 100 years ago in 1912.

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