What happens now Humza Yousaf has stood down?

Humza Yousaf announced his resignation as Scotland’s First Minister on Monday. We take a look at what could happen next.

What happens when Humza Yousaf stands down?

Mr Yousaf may announce his intention to resign but remain in post for several weeks while a SNP leadership election takes place.

Alternatively, a caretaker First Minister could be appointed, with Shona Robison, the deputy First Minister, or party grandee John Swinney the most likely options, until a new SNP leader is voted in by members.

Labour would be likely to press ahead with their no confidence motion in the entire Scottish Government this week, which if successful, would oblige the whole administration to immediately stand down.

However, the Greens would be highly unlikely to support the Labour motion once Mr Yousaf has quit, meaning it would not have the numbers to pass.

Will there be an election?

The SNP are unlikely to want an election, given the party has plummeted in the polls since Nicola Sturgeon came close to winning a majority in 2021.

The party’s finances are also stretched and it will also have to find the funds to fight a general election this year.

Scottish Labour is the only party that would stand to benefit significantly from an election, but it is Holyrood’s third party currently and only has 22 of 129 MSPs.

Regardless, there are likely to be opposition calls for a new election, given any successor to Mr Yousaf would be the third first minister in the current parliament and the second not to be endorsed by voters.

Embarrassingly for the SNP, they demanded a general election when Rishi Sunak succeeded Liz Truss, claiming he had “no mandate” from voters and that a third leader should not be “imposed” within a single parliamentary term.

For Holyrood to be dissolved, two thirds of MSPs would have to vote for it, meaning SNP support would be required.

Another route to an election would be if a new first minister could not win a vote of MSPs. If no first minister can be chosen within 28 days, there would have to be an election

This is a scenario that could potentially come into play if Kate Forbes won an SNP leadership contest, as the Scottish Greens have said they would oppose her due to her social and economically conservative stances.

How would an SNP leadership election work?

A timetable would have to be set by the party’s National Executive Committee. There would be pressure for an accelerated contest given the upcoming general election and the need for stable government in Scotland.

To make it onto the ballot at the last leadership election, candidates needed 100 nominations covering at least 20 different branches, making it not a particularly high bar to pass.

Realistically, a new leader would likely have to come from the Holyrood group, or else the new SNP leader could not become first minister.

However, there is nothing in the rules that would prevent an MP from standing. They could potentially attempt to manufacture a by-election to get them into Holyrood, though this would be risky.

If there was not a coronation of one candidate, members would rank contenders in order of preference using an Alternative Vote system.

Who are the contenders?

SNP insiders have admitted there is not an obvious successor. Stephen Flynn, the party’s Westminster leader, is highly ambitious but his status as an MP counts against him.

Kate Forbes is seen as the most talented of the Holyrood group, and almost defeated Mr Yousaf last year despite firm opposition from the party establishment, but her socially conservative views on issues like abortion and gay marriage would split the party.

Opposition from the Greens would mean Ms Forbes would struggle to pass budgets and would instead have to look to Unionist parties to cooperate, but they would be highly reluctant to do a deal with the nationalists.

Jenny Gilruth, the Education Secretary, or Neil Gray, the Health Secretary, are potential successors the Greens could work with but both have a lack of experience or notable political achievements.

Mairi McAllan, the Economy Secretary, is seen as a rising star but is pregnant and due to start maternity leave soon.

John Swinney, the former deputy first minister, has been touted as a possible caretaker and is popular with party members. But he is believed to have reservations for personal reasons.

He is also tainted by his close association with Ms Sturgeon and his previous stint as party leader, between 2000 and 2004, was a failure.