General election race closer than polls predict, says Sunak

The general election race is closer than the polls suggest, Rishi Sunak has said in his first public appearance since the final results of the local elections.

Speaking during a visit in London, the Prime Minister insisted that the result of the general election was not a “foregone conclusion” as he projected some optimism after the results.

Mr Sunak has echoed analysis from two Oxford academics that suggested if the local election voting was replicated at a general election it would leave a hung parliament.

However, Prof Sir John Curtice said on Monday that Reform’s polling position, which shows about 12 per cent of voters backing it, could actually rob the Tories of a House of Commons majority.

Mr Sunak said: “What the independent analysis shows is whilst of course this was a disappointing weekend for us that the result of the next general election isn’t a foregone conclusion.

“And indeed, actually, the situation is closer than many people are saying or indeed some of the opinion polls are predicting.

“And that’s why I’m absolutely determined to fight incredibly hard for what I believe and for the future country that I want to build and that’s what I’m going to do. Fight for this country, fight for the things I believe and deliver for everyone on the things that matter to them.”

The comments were the first time the Prime Minister has been seen in front of the cameras since all the council, mayoral, and police and crime commissioner results have been declared and the scale of Tory losses were laid bare.

The Conservatives won fewer councillors than not just Labour but also the Liberal Democrats. They also secured victories in just one of the 11 mayoral contests that were held.

Mr Sunak said it was “obviously disappointing to lose Conservative councillors and a fantastic mayor for the West Midlands in Andy Street”, adding: “I’m grateful to them for their public service and all their hard work.

“And look, for my part reflecting on it, I’m determined more than ever to demonstrate to the country that we are making progress on the areas that matter to them and we are going to deliver for them.”

Despite the losses, Mr Sunak’s position as Prime Minister and Conservative leader appears safe after Tory rebels accepted the results were not dire enough to attempt to oust him.

Mr Sunak has instead faced criticism from all sides of the the party about which direction to take the Conservatives now.

Asked about the divisions and his response, Mr Sunak said that what unites his colleagues is their collective values, pointing to policy drives recently announced.

The Prime Minister pointed to tax cuts in the spring Budget and Autumn Statement, Rwanda deportations flights that are due to get off the ground in July, and welfare reforms.

He also referred to his announcement last month to raise defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030, an approach that means an estimated £75 billion of extra spending to then.

There was no indication in the short question and answer session with a TV reporter that the Prime Minister intends to change direction, despite the council losses and large poll deficit to Labour.

The analysis by the two Oxford academics, Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, estimated what each party would have got if the local election voting on Thursday had actually taken place across the country.

It estimated that Labour would have got 34 per cent of the vote share and the Tories 27 per cent - a lead of just nine points, which is lower than polling for the general election.

Using the local results for a general election prediction is problematic because people are more likely to vote for smaller parties at council elections.

The analysis also assumed there was no change in the Scottish results since Thursday’s voting was only held in England and Wales, meaning the recent SNP collapse was not captured.

The Prime Minister jumped on the analysis to suggest on Monday that it meant there could be a hung parliament, meaning no party has overall House of Commons control.

But Sir John, the BBC’s polling guru, told Radio 4’s Today programme: “We should be wary of these projections … We know from the opinion polls that Reform is now taking more votes off the Conservatives than Labour is. Reform only appeared in one in six of the wards, so therefore their impact was probably diminished.

“Certainly, what you discover if you take the wards where Reform did stand, and look at what happened to the Conservative vote in those, the answer was the Conservative vote was down by 19 points.

“In other words, once you’re looking at places where Reform were on the ballot paper, and as they threaten to be in the parliamentary election, the change in the parties looks remarkably like what you might expect.”