General Election 2024 London seats: Who will be my MP in... Kensington and Bayswater

Tory Felicity Buchan who is being challenged by Labour’s Joe Powell for the new seat of Kensington and Bayswater (ES Composite)
Tory Felicity Buchan who is being challenged by Labour’s Joe Powell for the new seat of Kensington and Bayswater (ES Composite)

Millions of voters across London will go the polls on July 4 to elect the new Government. The Standard looks at key battleground seats in the capital. Here we turn the spotlight on:KENSINGTON AND BAYSWATER

Candidates for main parties (in alphabetical order):

Mona Abdulla Ishag Adam - Green Party

Felicity Buchan - Conservative

Marc Burca - Reform UK

William Houngbo - Liberal Democrats

Joe Powell - Labour

Summary: Former City banker Felicity Buchan came through the middle at the December 2019 election to beat both Labour’s Emma Dent Coad and the Liberal Democrat’s Sam Gyimah, a former universities minister who quit the Tories in 2019 a few months earlier accusing Boris Johnson’s government of “veering towards populism and English nationalism”.

She got over the line by just 150 votes, gaining 16,768, to Leftwinger Ms Dent Coad’s 16,618, and Mr Gyimah’s 9,312.

The constituency is one of the most divided in the capital, with huge pockets of wealth close to rundown estates.

Labour’s candidate Joe Powell this year is having a busier time than most candidates, as his partner recently gave birth to twins.

Wards: This constituency includes 14 Kensington and Chelsea wards, including Abingdon, Brompton & Hans Town, Campden, Colville, Courtfield, Dalgarno, Earl’s Court, Golborne, Holland, Norland, Notting Dale, Pembridge, Queen’s Gate, and St. Helen’s, as well as two in Westminster, Bayswater and Lancaster Gate.

Kensington and Bayswater map: Purple shaded area old constituency boundary. Green outlines new constituency boundaries (© OpenStreetMap contributors | © CARTO)
Kensington and Bayswater map: Purple shaded area old constituency boundary. Green outlines new constituency boundaries (© OpenStreetMap contributors | © CARTO)

Boundary changes impact (Thrasher and Rallings analysis): Boundary changes effectively turn this knife-edge seat from very light blue to very light red. In 2019, it was 38.3 per cent Conservative, 38 per cent Labour and 21.3 per cent Lib Dem. The new constituency would have been 39 cent Labour, 38.3 per cent Tory and 20.2 per cent Lib Dem.

YouGov MRP poll prediction: Labour gain from Conservatives

Evening Standard view: Given the boundary changes and the Lib Dems expected to be campaigning less full throttle in this seat, it might look like quite an easy win for Labour given the growing Red tide in the capital. But a wild card is Ms Dent Coad standing as an independent so it doesn’t look like a slam dunk.

Click below to see more key seats across London:

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