Crisis in Hungarian politics is exposing Orbán’s vulnerabilities. Will it sway undecided voters?

A scandal rocking Hungarian politics is exposing Viktor Orbán’s vulnerabilities and testing his opposition as the country prepares for local and European elections in June.

The Hungarian prime minister has been spending a significant amount of time travelling the globe in a quest to build up an international brand as a conservative figure dedicated to promoting traditional values.

But Orbán’s domestic critics have long argued that at home, the ruling Fidesz party has little to do with ideology and has constructed a governing system that is designed to enrich a small inner circle.

The gap between the government’s rhetoric and its behaviour came to the fore this month after Hungarian news site 444.hu reported that the country’s conservative president, Katalin Novák, had pardoned a man convicted of helping cover up a sex abuse case at a children’s home.

A little over a week after the article was published, Novák – who had built a career around her image as a conservative Christian mother focused on family-friendly policies – resigned.

With her also went Judit Varga, Fidesz’s lead candidate in the European parliament election, who had signed off on the decision in her previous role as justice minister.

But despite the abrupt end to the political careers of Fidesz’s only two well-known female politicians, no real explanation was provided for the pardon decision.

“The lack of any meaningful communication attempts before and the speed of the resignations show that the government wants to avoid any deeper scrutiny on the issue,” said Zsuzsanna Végh, a visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund.

Adding fuel to the fire, Péter Magyar, Varga’s ex-husband and a figure with close links to the government, broke ranks and publicly accused senior figures within the Fidesz system of hiding behind Novák and Varga, while taking aim at a part of the regime he described as working just to make itself rich.

“I had to slowly and finally realise that all of this is really just a political product, a sugar-coating that serves only two purposes: to cover up the operation of the power factory and to acquire enormous amounts of wealth,” he wrote at the weekend.

In an interview that quickly became a sensation in Hungary with more than 800,000 views on YouTube, Magyar recounted pressures and threats he had allegedly faced from government officials.

He also lashed out at Antal Rogán, a powerful minister who controls the country’s intelligence services and is widely believed to make decisions about the content of news reports. Rogán’s office was approached for comment.

For Hungary’s accountability advocates, who for years have warned about the impact of corrupt practices, Magyar’s decision to speak out was significant.

Magyar’s insider account “confirmed criticisms levelled by Hungarian civil society organisations, the media and European Union institutions on how corruption became systemic under prime minister Orbán, leading to the extreme enrichment of his close associates”, said Sándor Léderer, the director of K-Monitor, a Hungarian watchdog.

But Orbán, who has been consolidating power for more than a decade, is still in a strong position.

With swaths of Hungarian media under government control and the opposition divided, it remains unclear how much detail of the controversy will reach the ears of Orbán’s core voters – and whether it will affect their views. A January study by the opinion pollster Medián put Fidesz at 32%, while opposition parties were all polling in single digits.

“The prime minister will not face any direct repercussions,” Végh said. But she added that the criticism from Magyar “reveals some internal dividing lines in Fidesz, alluding to the presence of a group that is critical of an oligarchic and self-interest-driven inner circle around the prime minister”.

She added: “Approaching the local and European parliamentary elections, this is certainly uncomfortable for Fidesz, and will likely result in the inner circle demonstrating a show of force.”

Orbán was largely absent throughout the crisis, letting Novák and Varga take the blame.

A senior Hungarian official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, downplayed the impact of the political turbulence. Magyar “is not an important player in this game”, the official said.

“I think the prime minister isolated the problem and limited the damage caused by the president,” they said. Of Novák, they added: “She made a huge mistake, that’s for sure. The prime minister didn’t know about it.”

For Hungary’s opposition parties, which have struggled in recent years to make a dent in Orbán’s administration, the scandal is offering a rare opportunity – but also a significant challenge.

One opposition politician said important questions included whether “there is an actual cleavage in the Fidesz elite, or is it just about a personal vendetta?” Also unclear, they added, was whether the issue could “reach apathetic or undecided voters beyond the opposition core base”.

“The opposition and Fidesz core camps are pretty solid, so our job is to make sure the message and implications reach undecided and apathetic voters,” they said. “If the current opposition can’t capitalise on an opportunity like this then its very legitimacy and reason to exist in this form comes into question.”