Conservatives drop to lowest polling numbers since ‘bloody aftermath’ of Liz Truss mini-budget

The Conservatives have sunk to their lowest poll rating since the “bloody aftermath” of Liz Truss’s misfiring mini–budget, according to a new survey.

The latest Telegraph–Savanta tracker poll sees just 24 per cent of respondents saying they plan to vote Tory, compared to 44 per cent saying they back Labour.

That is the lowest Tory vote share recorded by the pollster since one published on October 16, 2022, just a week before Ms Truss was forced to step down from office.

It means that Mr Sunak’s party is polling at the same level that Ms Truss’s was in the wake of sacking her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng following the mini–Budget fallout.

The finding challenges Downing Street’s argument that the Prime Minister can still surprise the electorate and win the next election, despite the yawning gap with Labour.

It could also fuel private discussions among some Tory backbenchers about whether they should try to oust Mr Sunak, an idea dismissed as idle speculation by Number 10.

More than 2,200 people from across the UK were asked for their views between March 22 and March 24.

The Telegraph has teamed up with Savanta in the election year to offer insights into what voters are thinking about the race, with results published every Tuesday night.

Reform, formerly known as the Brexit Party, has kept its position as the third most popular political party across the country, with 11 per cent of respondents backing it.

The Liberal Democrats are up a single percentage point on last week’s poll, with 10 per cent of respondents saying they plan to vote for Sir Ed Davey’s party.

Chris Hopkins, the political research director at Savanta, said: “Not since the lowest point of the Liz Truss administration, in the bloody aftermath of her mini–budget and Kwasi Kwarteng’s resignation, have we recorded the Conservative Party vote share this low.

“With the Conservatives continuing to drop in the polls, Savanta has recorded its biggest Labour lead since September 2023.

“Reform UK’s high watermark from our most recent poll appears to be holding, and Labour’s vote share appears to be holding firm. It is hard to envision, but there is no reason why things can’t get even worse for Rishi Sunak in the coming weeks.

“That being said, it doesn’t look like there are any ready–made alternatives for the Conservatives to avoid electoral wipeout.”

There is political significance to the Tory vote share dropping to the lowest point since the final weeks of Ms Truss’s premiership, given she was ousted by her own MPs.

Ms Truss lasted just seven weeks in the role after a “mini” Budget which saw major tax cuts funded by borrowing triggered an adverse market reaction that risked pension funds.

The political fallout was swift, with Ms Truss ending up reversing the bulk of tax cuts, sacking her chancellor, Mr Kwarteng, and, eventually, giving in to MP pressure and quitting.

That Mr Sunak’s party is now polling at the same level as Ms Truss’s Tories were when she was ousted will not be welcomed in Number 10 as the election looms.

Downing Street spinners have sought to play down the significance of such polls, arguing that they will tighten closer to the election and questioning their accuracy.

Meanwhile, the poll also revealed that a third of Tory voters want Mr Sunak to call a general election before the autumn, which is the widely assumed date of the next vote.

A breakdown of responses showed that 33 per cent of people who voted Tory in the 2019 election want the next election to be called before September, a higher number than may be expected.

Mr Sunak has ruled out holding the general election at the same time as the local elections on May 2 and is widely expected to call a vote for October or November.

But there is an argument being voiced by some Tory MPs that going earlier than that could end up being politically wise, given fears support could drop further in the months ahead.

The significance of the finding is unclear, given that the result could include people who voted Tory in 2019 and have become disillusioned, now wanting them to lose.

But it suggests that there is some level of support for not waiting until the autumn from Conservative voters, despite Number 10’s apparent plan to hold off until then.

The general election must be held by the end of January 2025. Mr Sunak can decide when before then it is called.