Bellwether seat dispatch: Why the ‘centrist dads’ of Carshalton and Wallington want the Tories gone

Each week, The Telegraph will be taking the temperature in key constituencies around the country whose result could point the way for how the country will vote in July’s election. This week: Carshalton and Wallington

The self-confessed “centrist dads” hanging out at the café in a park in Carshalton have one overriding objective: removing the Conservatives from office.

Given the seat of Carshalton and Wallington is considered a two-horse race between the Tories and Liberal Democrats, they plan to achieve this aim by voting tactically – for the Lib Dems. “I’m a member of the Labour party, but for me the priority is getting rid of the Tories,” says father-of-two Dylan Behagg, 38.

It’s a priority shared by many others in this former Lib Dem stronghold, which fell to the Tories in 2019. Now, it is firmly in the party’s sights once again as they jostle to reclaim it on July 4. Given how small a swing this would take – and judging by the mood on the ground – such hopes seem far less crazed at this stage than any of their leader Ed Davey’s madcap campaign stunts.

Why is it a bellwether seat?

Carshalton and Wallington was held by the Lib Dems for more than two decades before it turned blue – just – in 2019. The defeat of the popular MP Tom Brake, who had held the seat for the Lib Dems for 22 years, came amid a national campaign by his party that was later described as a “high speed car crash” in an internal review. They were reduced to just 11 MPs nationally. Then-leader Jo Swinson had promised to revoke Brexit, which no doubt didn’t play well in Leave-voting seats like this one, allowing Boris Johnson to capitalise on his pledge to deliver on the 2016 EU referendum result. Nevertheless, the margin of defeat here was squeakily narrow, with only 629 votes separating the two parties. Labour came a distant third, with 12.4 per cent support.

That means a local swing of only 0.64 percentage points would be necessary for the Lib Dems to take the seat back. It’s therefore the “obvious” target for the party to overturn come July 4, polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice has said. No other seat in the country would require such a small swing to the Lib Dems for them to win it.

If the Tories manage to retain the seat, however, it could mean the predicted wipe-out of the party will be rather less dramatic than the polls have consistently suggested. But this seems unlikely: a YouGov survey this week named Carshalton and Wallington as among the three to six London seats the Lib Dems are predicted to gain. (Nearby Sutton and Cheam was another.) With the Tories facing a nationwide collapse in their vote amid deep disillusionment, a widespread sense that Britain is broken and an appetite for change, the chances of them holding on here of all places look slim.

If Davey’s party does win the seat back, local Lib Dem candidate Bobby Dean believes it will show they have broadened their support base beyond the more affluent and “homogeneous” southern English Blue Wall seats they are predominantly targeting.

“This seat is more mixed,” he says. “It voted Leave [in the Brexit referendum].”

Still, despite the very real prospect of knocking a Conservative brick out of the wall, there’s no sign of a tacit Labour agreement to give the Lib Dems a free run here. Instead, Labour insiders hope the contest could end up as a two-horse race between them and the Lib Dems this time around.

About the area

Wallington, which appears in the Domesday Book, used to be part of Surrey before being swallowed up by south London in 1965, along with its neighbour Carshalton.

Lavender has been grown in the area for hundreds of years and Carshalton retains a village-like feel, with its picturesque ponds overlooked by a Grade II listed church. Its high street includes a smattering of independent shops.

But there’s deprivation as well as affluence in the constituency. Wallington’s major thoroughfare, Woodcote Road, appears yet to be troubled by suburban gentrification. A noisy artery, it is dominated by chain stores – including Iceland, KFC and Greggs – and traffic. “Unfortunately the town centre is looking quite shabby,” says retired local authority worker Sue Humphreys, 63. “I think it’s become more run-down. They could make The Square [shopping precinct] look a bit better. It looks a bit dirty.”

But Elliot Colburn, the Tory MP who won the seat at the last election, takes a different view. He describes his constituency as an “undiscovered gem” that is not “overly built up”.

“It’s a place where traditionally a lot of people have come to start families. A lot of people have their ‘forever home’ here,” he says.

Who are the candidates?

Colburn didn’t expect to become an MP so young. Born and raised locally, he was only 27 when he won in 2019. “I’m a homebird,” he says when we meet at Spilt Milk, a stylish café on Carshalton High Street.

He left Carshalton – where he had grown up in “one of the poorer areas” and attended a comprehensive school – to go to university. But before long, he returned.

“I was a bit lost in a way,” he says. “[But] I always had an interest in politics.”

Colburn, who describes himself as “quite socially liberal”, has openly clashed with his party over its “obsession” with trans issues. He delightedly reveals he was on “defection watch” a couple of weeks ago, which baffled him. “I don’t think I’m that much of a troublemaker!” he laughs.

He has a bouncy, Tiggerish energy, and admits he’s been pleasantly surprised by the reception he’s received on the doorstep. Despite the grim national picture for his party, it has left him feeling “fairly confident”.

The thing about the Lib Dems, he suggests, is that “once they’re in, they’re very hard to remove, but once they’re out, they find it very hard to get back. That reflects what we’re finding on the doorstep.”

Unsurprisingly perhaps, Colburn’s take is markedly different to the one offered by Dean, the Lib Dem hopeful.

Over a cup of tea in the cosy Greyhound Pub in Carshalton, he talks about the three types of voter he’s been encountering: those who are “absolutely desperate for change and can’t wait to get rid of the Tories”; those who feel fed up with politicians generally and trust no one; and those who may have always voted Tory previously but aren’t sure what to do this time. “I feel most are peeling our way,” says Dean of this third group.

The 34-year-old is not a local boy: he grew up in a council house in Essex, the son of a scaffolder father and cleaner mother who still live in local authority housing and have never voted. Dean was the first, and so far only, member of his family to attend university. Since graduating, he has had a career in international development, providing communications advice for advocacy campaigns. Why did he become a Lib Dem? “Liberalism appeals to me,” he says. “It’s about opportunity and challenging power, whether that rests in giant corporations or the Government.”

Labour, for its part, is fielding the fresh-faced Hersh Thaker, who unsuccessfully contested a council ward in his home city of Leicester last year. Tracey Hague will stand for the Green Party and Elizabeth Cooper for Reform UK.

Despite Reform’s threat to the Tories nationally, Colburn appears cautiously optimistic about the prospect of haemorrhaging voters to Cooper. “It’s not [Reform’s] usual hunting ground,” he says. “I’m not saying I’m not worried, but I’m not quite at the point where my hair is falling out.”

View from the high street

It’s clear there is little to no evidence of enthusiasm for the Conservatives here; less clear that voters adore the Lib Dems and everything they stand for.

“Not Tory,” says Humphreys of her voting intentions. “Boris Johnson’s to thank for that, for his parties. That put the icing on the cake.”

Or indeed the nail in the coffin. One’s metaphor of choice matters less than the sentiment behind it. In The Square in Wallington, it’s hard to find anyone banging the drum for the incumbents. Humphreys thinks she’ll vote Lib Dem, as she has in the past. “I can’t get over the Tories’ actions.”

Joanne Bridgewater, 59, a carer for her son, sums it up from an outside table at Fresco café. She usually votes Conservative but is no longer sure she will. Why? “The state of the country.”

Tony Graham, 70, a retired engineer and former Tory voter, plans to vote Lib Dem “because the other lot can’t keep their hands to themselves, they keep nicking things”.

He’s concerned about the cost of living. “They say it’s gone down but prices aren’t coming down, [Rishi] Sunak is talking rubbish,” Graham says. Although he is warming to Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, he worries voting for the party here would be a wasted vote. There’s no such appreciation for Reform leader Nigel Farage, who he brands “an idiot”.

Then there are the self-declared centrist dads at the Grove park, who will likewise back the candidate best placed to boot out Colburn. Behagg, a business analyst in the music industry, has found himself disagreeing with Starmer, who he accuses of adopting positions overly similar to the Tories’ in areas such as immigration. “I’m a big fan of immigration,” he says. “My wife is Canadian.”

What does he think of Davey? “To be honest, I don’t really know that much about him.” As for Sunak, he is “just filling the chair really. I guess he’s the least worst person to be doing it now.”

“But I don’t feel he has any real conviction,” Behagg says. “There’s that well-trodden line about rearranging deckchairs on the Titanic.”

David Burgess, 38, a fundraising consultant and father of two, also plans to vote Lib Dem, though “I probably align more closely with Labour”.

Starmer, he says, is “better than the last five we’ve had in No 10”. But he dislikes how the culture wars and immigration “seem to be being allowed to define this election”. He too believes the latter “makes a positive difference to the community”.

Anne Dodwell, 85, a retired social worker and veteran Lib Dem supporter, is more concerned about climate change and “injustice to the world’s poor” than local issues such as bins and traffic.

These, she argues, are “minuscule compared to the global issues we face”.

The great-grandmother, who had a narrow escape when a bomb was dropped on Carshalton High Street during the Second World War, would be tempted by Starmer if she wasn’t a “dyed-in-the-wool Lib Dem living where I do, where there’s no way we’d get a Labour MP”.

What are the burning local issues?

As in most constituencies, the pressing local issues mirror the ills perceived to be afflicting the nation at large.

Most people mention the future of the local St Helier Hospital, which has been in doubt for some time. Labour named it this week as one of six London hospitals it would rebuild as part of its plans to fix the NHS. The Conservatives have also promised to upgrade its existing facilities and build a new local hospital.

“For me it’s stuff like parking around the schools,” says Behagg. Burgess cites access to dentists, GPs and childcare.

On the doorstep, Colburn has encountered frequent complaints about crime.

There’s also concern about sewage dumping in the River Wandle, an urban chalk stream that rises in Carshalton Ponds. “It’s really energised people,” says Dean, referring to the issue rather than the sewage.

But there’s one concern in particular among voters that could prove detrimental to the Tories both locally and nationally. It’s that nebulous but apparently widespread feeling cited by Dean that “nothing quite works properly” anymore.