Brecon and Radnorshire by-election: key statistics

Here are some statistics about the Brecon & Radnorshire by-election result:

– There was a 12.0% swing from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats. If this size of swing were repeated across the country at a general election, the Lib Dems would stand to gain up to a further 13 seats from the Tories.

– The turnout, based on valid votes cast, was 59.6%. This is the highest turnout at a parliamentary by-election since Winchester in November 1997.

– Jane Dodds is the 494th woman MP in history to be elected to the House of Commons. The first was Countess Constance Markievicz, who won a seat for Sinn Fein at the 1918 general election. Following Sinn Fein policy, the Countess did not take her seat at Westminster. The first woman MP to actually attend the House of Commons was Viscountess Nancy Astor, who won a by-election for the Conservatives in November 1919.

– Of the 650 seats in the current House of Commons, 211 are now held by women MPs. This is the highest number of women MPs ever.

– Labour’s share of vote has gone down in every by-election since the EU referendum, with the exception of Batley & Spen which wasn’t contested by the main parties. In the Brecon & Radnorshire by-election, Labour’s vote share was down 12.5 percentage points compared with the 2017 general election. This was a bigger drop than that recorded by the Conservatives (down 9.6 percentage points).

– Coming just eight days after Boris Johnson became prime minister, this is the quickest by-election defeat for any new PM since the Second World War.

– The result reduces the government’s working majority in the House of Commons to just one. There are 320 MPs who – on paper – would back the Government in a crunch vote in the Commons: 310 Tories and 10 members of the DUP. Set against this are 319 MPs from all other parties. In practice, at least one of these 319 MPs – Charlie Elphicke, who sits as an independent having recently had the Tory whip removed – would probably vote with the Government in a vote of confidence.