Tropical Storm Gert forms hours after Franklin and Emily; NHC monitoring 2 other systems

Tropical Storm Gert formed early Monday hours after two other tropical storms — Franklin and Emily formed Sunday — and Franklin could become the season’s second hurricane late this week, according to the latest forecast.

Activity heated up the the tropics over the weekend with the National Hurricane Center monitoring a total of five systems including two disturbances — one headed toward the western Gulf of Mexico and another off Africa’s west coast.

As of 5 a.m. Monday, Gert was located about 730 miles east-southeast of the Caribbean, moving west-northwest at 9 mph and maximum sustained winds at 40 mph, just 1 mph above the minimum top winds for tropical storm formation.

Gert’s tropical-storm-force winds extend out up to 70 miles from its center. Forecasters, however, expect Gert to be short-lived. The latest outlook indicates Gert may become a remnant low Monday and dissipate by Tuesday.

As of 5 a.m. Monday, Tropical Storm Franklin, was located about 395 miles south of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, with maximum sustained winds at 50 mph. Franklin was moving west at 12 mph toward Haiti and the Dominican Republic. A tropical storm warnings were issued for the southern coasts of both countries.

Franklin is expected to hit Haiti and the Dominican Republic as a tropical storm, but could become a hurricane after it moves northeast past the island and out to sea, according to hurricane center estimates.

On the current forecast track, the center of Franklin is forecast to turn north late Monday or early Tuesday, with its center reaching the southern portion of the island on Tuesday. It is expected to make landfall and bring a storm surge of 1-3 feet.

Franklin could bring 5-10 inches of rain to Haiti and the Dominican Republic and 2-6 inches to Puerto Rico, according to the latest estimates.

Tropical Storm Emily formed in the central Atlantic Sunday morning and as of 5 a.m. Monday rapidly weakening. Emily could become a post-tropical cyclone later Monday.

The disturbance that made for a rainy weekend in South Florida is expected to reach the western Gulf of Mexico coastline, possibly as a tropical storm or tropical depression, by Tuesday. It is forecast at a 70% chance at developing within the next two to seven days.

The next named storm to form would be Harold.

The disturbance close to Africa’s west coast could become a tropical depression later this week as it moves west-northwest across the eastern tropical Atlantic. As of 2 a.m. Sunday, it was given a 40% chance of developing within 48 hours and 70% within seven days.

None of the systems are currently expected to reach South Florida, said National Weather Service meteorologist George Rizzuto on Sunday, though such forecasts can change.

“At this time we’re not seeing any signs that any of these are going to be able to make it all the way to us,” Rizzuto said.

Monday will be a drier day in South Florida with chances of showers and storms but “much less coverage” than the past few days, Rizzuto said. Temperatures will likely reach just below the criteria for a heat advisory.

The National Hurricane Center has predicting an “above-normal” 2023 hurricane season as a result of ongoing record-breaking sea surface temperatures that continue to fight off the tempering effects of El Niño.

While sea surface temperatures have remained hot for longer than anticipated, El Niño’s effects, which typically reduce hurricane chances, have emerged more slowly.

The NHC, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, has forecast 14-21 named storms, including 6-11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.