General election odds: Latest betting as David Cameron returns as Tory minister

James Hockaday

  • Bookies are reporting an uptick in political betting following David Cameron's return to British politics

  • Suella Braverman still has surprisingly good chances of becoming the next Tory leader, despite sacking

  • Bets are also on for Nigel Farage to take the role, despite leaving the Conservative Party decades ago

Britain's Foreign Secretary David Cameron arrives to attend a cabinet meeting in central London on November 14, 2023 following a reshuffle. (Photo by Ben Stansall / AFP) (Photo by BEN STANSALL/AFP via Getty Images)
David Cameron's comeback to British politics sent shockwaves through the Tory party (Getty Images) (BEN STANSALL via Getty Images)

No one saw David Cameron's return to British politics coming, with his appointment as foreign secretary on Monday leaving the Conservative Party sharply divided.

Prime minister Rishi Sunak made the former leader one of his most powerful ministers as part of a Cabinet reshuffle, which has already sparked backlash from many right-wing Tories.

The move came as Sunak fired home secretary Suella Braverman after she accused London's Metropolitan Police of political bias over pro-Palestine protests and said rough sleeping was a 'lifestyle choice'.

Former foreign secretary James Cleverly took Braverman's old job, leaving a vacancy for Cameron, who resigned as an MP in 2016 after Britain voted to leave the European Union in a referendum he called.

Despite campaigning for Remain, Cameron now says he wants to make Brexit a "success", but many Tories, including former Brexit minister David Frost, claim his appointment is taking the party "back to the past".

File photo dated 03/04/23 of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and (then) Home Secretary Suella Braverman during a visit to a hotel in Rochdale, Greater Manchester, for a meeting of the Grooming Gangs Taskforce.
Many on the right of the Tory Party are unhappy with Suella Braverman's sacking (Alamy) (Phil Noble, PA Images)

Many backbenchers on the right are also disappointed to see Braverman go - viewing her sacking as a departure from true conservatism, with at least one Tory MP already submitting a letter of no confidence in Sunak.

With such seismic events unfolding in the party, bookies are reporting an uptick in people placing bets on UK politics, with some surprisingly favourable odds of Braverman making a comeback.

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Here, Yahoo News shows you the latest UK political betting odds following David Cameron's return to Cabinet.

Odds for next Conservative Party leader

Business and trade secretary Kemi Badenoch is currently the favourite to become next Tory leader with odds of 7/2, according to Betfred.

Perhaps more surprisingly, Braverman's odds of 5/1 didn't change even after she was sacked, which may be an indicator of her support among the party membership and backbenches.

David Cameron has odds of 20/1, while in a surprise turn, Brexiteer and Reform UK founder Nigel Farage - who is preparing to appear on 'I'm a Celebrity!' - has a chance of 33/1, despite having not been in the Tory party since 1992.

  • Kemi Badenoch - 7/2

  • James Cleverly - 9/2

  • Suella Braverman - 5/1

  • Penny Mordaunt - 6/1

  • David Cameron - 20/1

  • Nigel Farage - 33/1

I'm A Celebrity's Nigel Farage wants to show everyone he's a nice guy (ITV)
Surprisingly, bets are on for Nigel Farage to become next Tory leader (ITV) (ITV)

Odds for next prime minister

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer currently has the highest chance of becoming the next prime minister after Sunak, according to Betfred, coming in with odds of 1/6.

It's not looking good for the current PM, with a 4/5 chance he'll cease to be leader in 2024, and evens for 2025 or later.

  • Keir Starmer - 1/6

  • Kemi Badenoch - 25/1

  • Suella Braverman - 25/1

  • James Cleverly - 33/1

  • Penny Mordaunt - 33/1

  • David Cameron - 33/1

  • Nigel Farage - 50/1

November 12, 2023, London, England, United Kingdom: Labour leader KEIR STARMER arrives in Downing Street ahead of Remembrance Sunday ceremony. (Credit Image: © Tayfun Salci/ZUMA Press Wire) EDITORIAL USAGE ONLY! Not for Commercial USAGE!
Keir Starmer is most likely to be the next prime minister, according to bookies (Alamy) (ZUMA Press, ZUMA Press, Inc.)

Odds for next General Election winner

With the Conservative Party taking a reputational beating in recent years following the Partygate scandal, chaotic leadership changes and its handling of the cost of living crisis, its prospects of winning the next General Election are looking slim.

Most seats

  • Labour - 1/8

  • Conservatives - 11/2

  • Reform UK - 100/1

  • Liberal Democrats - 150/1

  • Green Party - 500/1

Overall Majority

  • Labour - 2/7

  • No overall majority - 4/1

  • Conservatives - 10/1

  • Liberal Democrats - 750/1

Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delivers a speech during the Lord Mayor's Banquet at Guildhall in central London on November 13, 2023. The Lord Mayor's Banquet is held in honour of the outgoing Lord Mayor and is hosted by his successor the new Lord Mayor of the City of London. Traditionally, the prime minister makes a major world affairs speech at the event. (Photo by Daniel LEAL / AFP) (Photo by DANIEL LEAL/AFP via Getty Images)
Rishi Sunak's prospects aren't looking good, with the Tory Party's reputation taking a hammering in recent years (Getty Images) (DANIEL LEAL via Getty Images)

'Huge upsurge' in political betting since Cameron's shock return

Bookies have already seen an uptick in bets since David Cameron's return, which is likely to create further ripples in UK politics.

A Betfred spokesperson told Yahoo News: "We've had a huge upsurge in the 24 hours after that announcement.

"For Cameron, we've had at least one £100 bet in London - where most of the political betting goes on - and loads and loads of fivers and tenners.

"The biggest mover we've had is Cleverly, who's positioned himself quite nicely as second favourite."

He added that while Braverman's odds remaining the same might seem surprising, her image as "darling of the right" might give her some leverage in a future political battle.

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