General election odds: Latest betting as Tories lose massive majorities in historic by-elections
The Conservative Party faces an uphill struggle to regain power at the next general election following its disappointing triple by-election performance, bookmakers say.
The Labour Party won in Selby and Ainsty and the Liberal Democrats in Somerton and Frome, both overturning Tory majorities of about 20,000.
However, Rishi Sunak avoided becoming the first prime minister since 1968 to lose three by-elections on the same day by securing a slender and unexpected victory in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Boris Johnson's old constituency.
It offers Sunak a sliver of hope in the next general election, bookies said.
The next general election will be held no later than 28 January 2025, but it has been reported that Sunak is targeting autumn 2024 to take the country to the polls.
Watch: Thumping defeats for Rishi Sunak but he's spared by-election whitewash
He faces a huge task to return a Conservative majority, according to opinion polls and bookmakers, but the party's narrow by-election victory last night in Uxbridge and South Ruislip has offered some hope.
Bookmaker Betfair still forecasts an overall Labour majority at the next general election, but said the odds of this had decreased every so slightly after the by-elections, from 1/2 to 8/15.
In addition, the chances of a hung Parliament, with no single party having an overall majority, have increased, going from 3/1 before the by-elections to 5/2 on Friday morning with Betfair.
On a personal level, there was also good news for Sunak, who had been 15/2 to be replaced as Conservative Party leader this year, but that has now drifted to 9/1.
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom told Yahoo News UK: “All the pre by-elections roads were leading to a very bruising night for the Conservatives and Rishi Sunak, and while the party lost in Selby and Ainsty and in Somerton and Frome, holding Uxbridge and South Ruislip when the odds suggested they were huge 15/2 outsiders to do so has failed to see Labour improve their chances of a majority at the next general election, according to the odds.
“Labour remain the clear favourites at 8/15, but these odds have slightly drifted from 1/2 before the by-election.
"Meanwhile, the chances of no overall majority has increased, with the odds shortening to 5/2 from 3/1 after the Conservatives' shock victory in Uxbridge.
“The result was good news for Rishi Sunak, who may have eased any calls for him to go any time soon, according to the odds, as 2023 being the year he walks has drifted to 9/1 from 15/2, likely buying the leader enough time to take the party into the next general election.”
Most bookmakers have Labour at 4/9 or 2/5 to achieve an overall majority at the next general election, according to betting comparison site OddsChecker, with the Tories anything from 7/1 to 9-1 to hold on to their own majority.
Most bookmakers have Labour at 1/7 to win the most seats.
New Tory MP Steve Tuckwell won Uxbridge and South Ruislip by just 495 votes, a result Labour blamed on the incoming ULEZ charge expansion on polluting cars.
In Selby and Ainsty, 25-year-old Keir Mather will become the youngest MP in the Commons – the “Baby of the House” – after overturning a 20,137 majority.
New Liberal Democrats MP Sarah Dyke secured Somerton and Frome by overhauling a 19,213 Tory majority and turning it into a 11,008-vote victory.
On Friday, Sunak insisted the next general election is not a “done deal”, even after losing two previously safe Tory seats in the by-elections.
He said: “By-elections, mid-terms for an incumbent government are always difficult. They rarely win them.
“The message I take away is that we’ve got to double down, stick to our plan and deliver for people. “Westminster’s been acting like the next election is a done deal. The Labour Party has been acting like it’s a done deal, the people of Uxbridge just told all of them that it’s not."
Watch: Rishi Sunak vows to 'double down' after double by-election defeat
