The UK Government’s immigration plans could reduce the number of workers in Scotland by up to 5% over the next two decades, it has been suggested.
An advisory group, chaired by Professor Christina Boswell of the University of Edinburgh, was asked to give independent expert advice to the Scottish Government on migration, population growth and demographic change.
In its findings, the group indicated that under the proposals put forward in the UK Government’s White Paper, net migration to Scotland could be reduced by between one third and one half after 2020.
The plan would see a salary threshold introduced, under which people earning less than £30,000 would not be allowed admittance to the UK.
However, it is estimated that 63% of workers in Scotland currently earn below that level.
The group also suggested that the threshold would exclude a greater proportion of women than men, as well as younger people at the start of their careers.
The independent Expert Advisory Group on Migration and Population has warned that @GOVUK immigration plans would have a disproportionate effect on Scotland’s hospitality, manufacturing and social care sectors.
— Scottish Government (@scotgov) February 28, 2019
Migration Minister Ben Macpherson said: “The Scottish Government has been consistently clear that freedom of movement has enriched Scotland and should be allowed to continue.
“The UK Government’s focus on reducing immigration will damage Scotland and does not reflect the needs of our economy, our public services or our communities.
“This independent report raises additional concerns about the effect UK Government immigration proposals will have on Scotland’s rural and suburban areas and demographics.
“The findings also reinforce the case for creating fair, tailor-made immigration solutions for Scotland that value all skills, work for businesses and support the delivery of public services across the country”.
Professor Boswell, said: “As the UK Government elaborates its proposals for immigration policy after Brexit, it is vital that we understand the effects of changes to migration on Scotland’s economy and society.
“If the UK Government’s proposals are enacted, we are likely to see a substantial fall in net migration to Scotland over the coming decades.
“But importantly, the effects of this reduction will vary across different sectors and local areas. The report considers the particular challenges for sectors reliant on non-UK workers who earn less than the proposed £30,000 threshold – such as accommodation and food services, manufacturing, and social care.
“It also considers the particular challenges for rural and remote communities, which are especially reliant on in-migration to sustain economic livelihoods and public services – but which will be most affected by the proposed salary threshold.
“The proposed transitional arrangements for short-term migration are also likely to lead to higher churn and integration challenges in local communities.
“We also find that the proposed changes would have gender impacts, potentially leading to a lower proportion of female migrants.
“We suggest that discussion on the UK’s future immigration system needs to be underpinned by more comprehensive analysis on the range of effects, across different sectors, local areas, and by gender.”