Theresa May appears to be heading for one of the heaviest Parliamentary defeats in modern history after a last-gasp appeal to Tory rebels over her Brexit deal fell on deaf ears.
More than 100 of her MPs – around a third of those who sit on the green benches for the Conservatives – are thought to oppose the Prime Minister’s Withdrawal Agreement ahead of Tuesday night’s meaningful vote.
With just hours to go there seems little sign that opponents within her party – let alone her parliamentary foes – will swing behind the deal hammered out with Brussels when they enter the voting lobbies.
Environment Secretary Michael Gove would not predict a win for Mrs May, telling BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that he did not know how the vote would go.
He reiterated the warning made by several ministers that remaining in the EU was worse than leaving without a deal and suggesting there were “people in the House of Commons and outside who have never made their peace with this decision” to leave.
He also defended the Northern Ireland border backstop, the most divisive part of the deal, saying it was “deeply uncomfortable for the EU”.
He continued: “If it is a trap for anyone, it’s a trap for the EU. Why? Because the European Union said at the very beginning of this process that there would be no cherry-picking, the four freedoms of the single market were indivisible.
“But we have picked a whole bowl of glistening cherries, we have free access to the European market with no tariffs and no quotas but at the same time we say that European citizens have no freedom of movement.”
The Prime Minister has insisted she is focused on winning the vote – telling Conservative rebels on Monday evening that they risked handing the keys of No 10 to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
However the Daily Telegraph quoted one Cabinet source as saying it would be “hard for her to carry on” if she lost by more than 100 votes.
The deal suffered its first official parliamentary defeat in the House of Lords on Monday night as peers voted by 321 votes to 152 – a majority of 169 – to reject it.
Mr Corbyn indicated he was finally ready to table a vote of no-confidence in the Government if it loses in the Commons.
“Don’t be concerned, it’s coming soon,” he told a meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party.
Shadow Brexit secretary Sir Keir Starmer offered no more clarity on Tuesday morning, telling Today: “The timing will be down to Jeremy Corbyn but he has already indicated that it will be soon.”
It would appear unlikely that Labour can muster enough votes to force a general election, with both Tory rebels and the DUP indicating they would continue to back the Government in a confidence vote.
However Downing Street has given little indication as to how the Prime Minister intends to proceed if she is defeated.
The British people are ready for us to move beyond division and come together. pic.twitter.com/WfIqHPoARW
— Theresa May (@theresa_may) January 14, 2019
Under the terms of an amendment passed last week, she must table a motion on her Plan B by Monday – although in practice she is unlikely to want to wait that long.
Some reports have suggested she could fly to Brussels – possibly as early as Wednesday – in an attempt to obtain further concessions on the crucial issue of the backstop.
But that could prove problematic if she has suffered a massive defeat, with EU leaders reluctant to give ground if they believe it is simply impossible for her to get the deal through the Commons.
Alternatively, she could opt to bring back the deal to the House for a second – or possibly even a third – time in an attempt to wear down the opposition.
Some MPs claimed to have detected some movement towards her position after she addressed a private meeting of Conservatives MPs at Westminster on Monday evening.
So far, however, the numbers contemplating backing the deal would appear to fall far short of what is needed to affect the final outcome.
Dominic Raab said Brexiteers like him could back a deal if aspects such as the backstop were dealt with.
The former Brexit secretary told Today: “I made clear when I resigned that there were three aspects that needed to be addressed.
“The backstop is clearly one of them and I want to see very clearly the Withdrawal Agreement linked to a best-in-class free trade agreement.
“If we could do those two things, someone like me would say that, actually, we could vote for it.”
Mrs May will make her final appeal when she winds up five days of debate in the Commons before MPs head to the division lobbies.
Voting is due to begin at 7pm and could continue for around two hours, depending on how many amendments Speaker John Bercow calls before the final meaningful vote on the deal.
Labour MP Hilary Benn has pulled his amendment to the Government’s Withdrawal Agreement motion which would have rejected both the PM’s deal and leaving the EU with no deal.
Mr Benn, who is chairman of the Commons Exiting the European Union Committee, had Tory support for his proposal but tweeted that he had decided to act because “it’s vital that we now get the clearest expression of view from the House on the Government’s deal”.