Football bloggers have predicted what's going to happen in the Euros


The world of football blogging is awash with different voices giving their own take on this summer's upcoming football action, but how right are these sporting fanatics in their predictions?

We spoke to Tumblr about what the football blogging world thinks we can expect from the Euros.

England's Jamie Vardy during a training session

Using data from over 24 million Tumblr blogs from January 1 through May 31 of this year a group of researchers whittled down the content to 1.8 million relevant posts which were scanned for mentions of countries and players.

The researchers then added data values by going back over each team's results in the past four years - they used Opta data on Yahoo Sports for this - to determine the average goals scored for and against in that time.

Still with us? It gets more simple in a moment... but basically to figure out who would win each game the data was put into a Poisson regression model with five variables for each team determining if they won.

1. How many times a participating team was mentioned in Euro 2016-related Tumblr posts.
2. How many times on average a given participating team's player was mentioned in Euro 2016-related Tumblr posts.
3. The standard deviation.
4. The average number of goals a participating team scored in the previous four years.
5. The average number of goals a participating team's opponent scored against them in the previous four years.

Got all that? Good. So, here's what the blogs predicted.

Germany will win the Euros 2016. Of course.

Germany defender player Per Mertesacker celebrates

World champions Germany are one of the bookies' favourites to win so it comes as no surprise that they're topping the bloggers' charts too. A win would mark a golden age for German football as they would then join the elite ranks of teams to hold both European and World Cup trophies simultaneously. It would also put to bed the ghosts of Euro 2008 and the 2010 World Cup, where Spain's triumphant runs left Germany defeated.

England will beat Portugal and make the semi-finals.

England's Chris Smalling

Yahoo's predictions site suggests that England will face a familiar foe - Portugal - in the quarter-final stage. Portugal have beaten England both at Euro 2000, Euro 2004 AND the 2006 World Cup, but it looks like England will FINALLY have revenge this year! A predicted 2-1 victory in extra-time will see England through, according to the blogs.

Republic of Ireland will make it to the quarter-finals.

Republic of Ireland assistant coach Roy Keane

The Republic of Ireland are projected to put on a sterling performance in this year's competition, as they are projected to upset Italy and Belgium to come top in their group and make it to the quarter-finals. Belgium are widely regarded as one of the favourites to lift the trophy, so we'll have to wait and see.

See below for graphical representations of Yahoo Research's winners forecast.


Will the football fanatics' predictions ring true? Only time will tell...